Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LOWER CEILINGS INTO
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDER NEAR THE RED RIVER. IFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHILE THE REST OF THE STATE CLEARS FROM MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
LATER THIS EVENING WHEN THE FRONT MOVES WELL SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT THAT IS STEADILY MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING
WILL BRING COOLER AND CLOUDY WEATHER TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
ARRIVING FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL AUGMENT LIFT NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT TO BRING RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA TODAY. SOME LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER. THE COOLER AIRMASS LASTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND PREVIOUSLY PROMPTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA FOR SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THIS WILL PASS QUICKLY AS THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BRINGS VERY WARM AIR AND EXTREMELY DRY AIR
FROM THE WEST, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY STRONG FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL GIVE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. TUESDAY IS THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR THE
HIGHEST WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. A FRONT WITH A COOL AIRMASS ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN STRONG UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY WHEN STARTS A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME SNOW/RAIN MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  32  56  31 /  50  10   0   0
HOBART OK         49  30  56  31 /  40  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  36  58  33 /  60  10   0   0
GAGE OK           45  23  55  24 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     48  27  54  26 /  40  10   0   0
DURANT OK         61  39  58  35 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ004>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

23/09/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
442 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
442 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THE RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KNOX CITY TEXAS TO DUNCAN
OKLAHOMA TO DAVIS TO ATOKA. LARGE HAIL...UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS...WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BECAUSE OF WARM...DRY WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS. WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO...OR BELOW...FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. A FREEZE WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

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