Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WHILE A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY MONDAY. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL
EXPECT MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS SW OK/W N TX BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF WEST TX. ELEVATED
STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOP NEAR LUB. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOP ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN OK, BUT EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT NEAR OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET AS IT MOVES INTO OK. THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW AND CENTRAL OK. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW, BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
WITH THE LLJ THIS EVENING ALONG WITH LOWERING LCLS. AGAIN, THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN APPEARS TO BE SW/S AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH
ABOUT 10 PM. A COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL OK AND NE OK, WITH SHOWER
AND STORM CHCS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I40.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL RETURN EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE OK AS THE MAIN VORT MAX ENTERS SW OK. THE
ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OK, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG I35
AND A COLD FRONT NEAR I40. THE MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE DAMAGING
HAIL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, BUT ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES COULD
RESULT IN A LOCALIZED LOW TORNADO THREAT. TOMORROW'S FORECAST WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.

MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY COME TO END END NEAR
SUNSET TOMORROW AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY IT FOR TUE. THE NEXT MID TO
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AGAIN LIFT OUT OF WEST TX/SE NM LATE
TUE THROUGH WED INTO THE RED RIVER REGION. MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER FOR NOW, BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF SCHC POPS NEED TO BE SPREAD NORTH A BIT TO NEAR
THE I40 CORRIDOR BY EARLY WED AM.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW THE LAST WAVE THUR-FRI, WHILE A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE NW CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH A DRYLINE AND WEAK COLD
FROPA. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW,
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  65  40  64 /  70  60  10   0
HOBART OK         55  65  39  65 /  50  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  77  45  67 /  40  20   0   0
GAGE OK           48  55  34  65 /  60  50   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     53  61  34  64 /  80  50  10   0
DURANT OK         66  78  49  67 /  30  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

26/09/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
804 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-120115-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
804 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
AN ENHANCED RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE
AND TALOGA... TO NEAR ENID AND GUTHRIE... TO SHAWNEE AND PAULS
VALLEY OKLAHOMA... THEN NORTH OF A LINE FROM PAULS VALLEY AND
DUNCAN OKLAHOMA... TO WICHITA FALLS... TO CROWELL TEXAS. A SLIGHT
RISK SURROUNDS THE ENHANCED RISK... INCLUDING THE REST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 4 AM MONDAY.

IMPACTS...
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF TORNADOES... MAINLY THROUGH 2 AM
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER... THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON WHAT
HAPPENS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE MORNING ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST... EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO
RECOVER AS THE DRY LINE BEGINS TO REGROUP THROUGH NOON OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. ONCE AGAIN...
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS WARM MOIST AIR COLLECTS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. AS A RESULT... THERE IS AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES WITH A
SLIGHT RISK GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CALVIN TO ADA
TO LAKE TEXOMA. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM STILLWATER AND GUTHRIE... TO EL RENO AND LAWTON
OKLAHOMA... TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

IF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON... THEY WILL LIKELY
BEGIN IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW RISK OF TORNADOES WITH THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

KURTZ/MAXWELL/BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1139 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW CYRIL             34.89N 98.23W
04/10/2016  E63 MPH          CADDO              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            TSTM WIND GUST E63 MPH REPORTED 2W CYRIL.

&&

ADL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N DUNCAN              34.53N 97.97W
04/10/2016  E60 MPH          STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            DUNCAN FD REPORTED TSTM WIND GUST E60 MPH.

&&

ADL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N DUNCAN              34.53N 97.97W
04/10/2016  E70 MPH          STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            TSTM WIND GUST E70 MPH IN DUNCAN.

&&

ADL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1151 PM     HAIL             DUNCAN                  34.52N 97.97W
04/10/2016  M1.12 INCH       STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            INCH AND AN EIGHTH HAIL REPORTED IN DUNCAN.

&&

ADL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1152 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FREDERICK               34.39N 99.01W
04/10/2016                   TILLMAN            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN IN FREDERICK.

&&

ADL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GERONIMO                34.48N 98.38W
04/11/2016                   COMANCHE           OK   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORTED POWER LINES DOWN IN GERONIMO.

&&

ADL