Severe Thunderstorm Warning 812, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
545 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.AVIATION...
Complex of storms will push east of OKC/OUN TAF sites around
00Z. However another complex of storms is expected to push east and
southeast across much of the area overnight tonight. This will
create a period of MVFR and perhaps some IFR conditions. Convection
and much of the cloud cover will exit before sunrise with VFR
conditions through the day on Sunday at all sites.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

.DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential through tonight is the primary
concern.

Through 8 pm this evening, severe storm potential will increase. As
of 315 pm, a complex of strong to severe storms over far western
Oklahoma will continue to move east near I-40. Damaging winds up
to 70 mph will be the main hazard with this complex, though hail
up to golf ball size, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning are
possible as well. This complex will likely impact the Oklahoma
City metro area in the 5-7 pm time frame. This complex may grow
upscale in wind potential as well as coverage in the next several
hours with numerous severe reports of mainly damaging wind possible.
Latest model runs, including HRRR, seemed to be doing a poor job
handling this complex.

Additional isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
may form ahead of this complex through 8 pm this evening as the
air is weakly capped across Oklahoma. South of the Red River,
capping appears to be stronger. Sufficient shear (0-6 km bulk
shear 30-45 kt) and instability (MLCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg which is in
the 90th percentile or higher for this time of year) support
supercells and multicells capable of large hail and damaging
winds. Locally heavy rainfall is possible as well, though
widespread flooding seems unlikely due to decent storm motions
generally over 20 mph.

After 8 pm this evening, activity this afternoon should diminish,
and the main attention for additional storms will switch to the
High Plains which may congeal and dive southeast into a large
MCS/squall line. Latest model guidance have been suggesting this
potential, though confidence is not too high as ongoing storms
this afternoon will impact the local environment. There appears to
be a lower severe threat with these storms compared to this
afternoon due to the loss of daytime heating and as the boundary
layer cools and becomes more stable. However, a few reports of
damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf balls will
be possible along with locally heavy rainfall. The timing of this
possible complex remains uncertain, but generally believe it would
occur in the 8 pm to 4 am time frame. Did not go too high with
rain chances tonight as not completely sure this complex will
materialize.

Sunday, a few morning showers and storms with locally heavy
rainfall may linger during the morning hours, mainly southeast of
I-44. Otherwise, decreasing clouds and hot/humid conditions are
expected.

Sunday night through next Saturday, hot and humid conditions are
generally forecast with limited rain chances. Temperatures are
forecast to be well above average for mid to late September. A
cold front may bring cooler conditions and higher rain chances by
the end of the week.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  88  70  92 /  60  30  10   0
Hobart OK         64  90  69  95 /  60  30  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  67  91  71  96 /  60  40  10   0
Gage OK           62  89  65  94 /  50  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     62  87  70  92 /  50  20  10  10
Durant OK         69  90  69  94 /  40  50  10   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

25/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181945-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
244 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
A SLIGHT RISK COVERS AN AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA
AND KINGFISHER... TO EL RENO AND LAWTON OKLAHOMA... TO CROWELL
TEXAS. A MARGINAL RISK SURROUNDS THE SLIGHT RISK AND COVERS THE
REST OF THE AREA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THROUGH 3 AM.

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO
70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN.

DISCUSSION...
TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE FIRST
ROUND WILL BE WITH A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING EAST ALONG
I-40 AND ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE DUE TO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOTH ROUNDS OF
STORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
709 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAYNE                   34.92N 97.32W
09/17/2016                   MCCLAIN            OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            2 SEMI TRUCKS TURNED OVER ON I-35 AND POWER LINES DOWN
            NEAR HWYS 77 AND 59. RELAYED BY COUNTY EM.

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
715 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     TSTM WND GST     CONNERVILLE             34.45N 96.63W
09/17/2016  M65 MPH          JOHNSTON           OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            RELAYED BY COUNTY EM

&&

JPIKE