Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 685, NWS Norman, OK

July 28, 2016Kay County, Oklahoma

NWS Norman, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 28, 2016, 3:58 PM CDT for Kay County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 28, 2016, 3:58 PM CDT (20:58 UTC)
Expired: Jul 28, 2016, 4:45 PM CDT
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Norman, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Kay County, OK

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1030 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -83 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1107 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 81 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 138 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Norman, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 28, 2:41 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 28, 2:41 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
241 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Some afternoon diurnal showers have started. Instability and moisture
are present to support continued convection through about sunset,
though without any appreciable shear not expecting any kind of
organized storms.

Main forecast challenge is an MCS coming south out of Kansas late
tonight. Models are just now starting to come into some agreement on
the details of this system, with storms entering Oklahoma between
04Z and 06Z and persisting till about I-40. The HRRR is an outlier,
keeping the MCS out of Oklahoma till about 08Z, and the GFS is an
outlier in persisting convection all the way to the Red River. As
the system makes its way south, increasing CIN should gradually
decrease severe potential, but, especially earlier on, instability
(1000-1500 joules) and bulk shear (up to 45 knots) will be enough to
support some severe wind gusts.

Instability and moisture will remain in place tomorrow, possibly
supporting some afternoon diurnal convection again. Part of this
will depend on tonight's MCS, how much it disrupts the atmosphere
and whatever boundaries it leaves behind. Given the uncertainty in
so many variables, confined POPs to 30 percent or less.

Models continue to hint at the possibility of another MCS tomorrow
night, but details remain sketchy. Again, a lot will depend on the
mesoscale features that will be affected by tonight's system.

By Sunday, rain chances will be mostly diminished as the ridge
builds back in and temperatures near 100 return to the area.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  88  71  91 /  50  30  40  30
Hobart OK         70  90  72  96 /  50  30  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  74  95  74  98 /  30  20  20  20
Gage OK           67  87  68  95 /  60  30  30  20
Ponca City OK     69  87  70  91 /  60  30  40  30
Durant OK         72  93  74  94 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

04/14

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 28, 11:53 AM CDT, 4 hours 5 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-
WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1153 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.LOCATION...
THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. LATER IN THE NIGHT
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SO THE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

.TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 9 PM THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

.IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 9 PM AND
THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACTS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 28, 3:25 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

OKZ012-282100-
GARFIELD OK-
325 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM CDT...

AT 321 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BRECKENRIDGE... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3643 9791 3651 9771 3630 9747 3618 9789
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 331DEG 13KT 3639 9774

Special weather statement, Jul 28, 3:39 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
339 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

OKZ008-282115-
KAY OK-
339 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KAY COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM CDT...

AT 335 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF KAW LAKE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3697 9682 3690 9675 3678 9675 3678 9679
      3677 9679 3677 9682 3674 9683 3675 9687
      3675 9689 3668 9693 3669 9700 3689 9711
      3699 9699
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 324DEG 8KT 3686 9691

Local storm report, Jul 28, 3:49 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE BRECKENRIDGE       36.41N 97.69W
07/28/2016  M58.00 MPH       GARFIELD           OK   MESONET

&&

DW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Norman, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 27, 7:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Garvin	33 min
Jul 27, 7:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Caddo	32 min
Jul 28, 3:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Garfield	35 min
Jul 28, 3:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Garfield	40 min
Jul 28, 3:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Kay	36 min
Jul 28, 4:15 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OUN	Kay	2 hr
Jul 28, 4:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Garfield	29 min
Jul 28, 4:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Kay, Noble	44 min
Jul 28, 4:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Garfield, Kingfisher, Logan	24 min
Jul 28, 4:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Grant	23 min
Jul 28, 4:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Kingfisher	37 min
Jul 28, 4:45 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Kay	3 hr
Jul 28, 4:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Garfield	31 min
Jul 28, 5:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Blaine	29 min
Jul 28, 5:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Payne	27 min
Jul 28, 5:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Blaine	27 min
Jul 28, 5:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Noble, Payne	39 min
Jul 28, 5:54 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OUN	Noble, Payne	3 hr
Jul 28, 6:03 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Noble, Payne	3 hr
Jul 28, 6:08 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OUN	Blaine, Canadian	3 hr
Jul 28, 6:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Blaine	30 min
Jul 28, 6:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Blaine, Caddo, Canadian	36 min
Jul 27, 9:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Baylor	28 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.