Severe Thunderstorm Warning 605, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1006 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Expanded POPs tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Have expanded the low POPs farther southeast given the HRRR and to
some extend RAP signal of precipitation. Considered raising pops
to chance category in the northwest given the HRRR forecast, but
will see how the developing convection persists in the Texas
panhandle south of the initial convection in the Guymon-Spearman
area. Storms in southeast Kansas was handled pretty well by high-
resolution models and should remain east of the area. The
convection in northwest Kansas is not handled as well, but it
would be quite a while before it arrives if it does persist.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Triple digit heat is common behind a weak surface boundary in the
Texas Panhandle this afternoon. To the east, air temperatures are
not as hot in Oklahoma but with higher humidity, heat index values
have exceeded 110 degrees in a few locations.  With slightly cooler
temperatures expected Friday, the heat headlines will be allowed
to expire early this evening.

As surface winds back later this afternoon/evening, a few
thunderstorms may develop across west Texas. If storms form, a few
may move into western Oklahoma during the early to mid evening
hours. Strong wind gusts will be likely with any storm that forms.

Meanwhile, a rather strong trough is moving east across the
Northern Plains. This system will push a frontal boundary into
northern Oklahoma late tonight into Friday. By Friday afternoon,
scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along a near the
surface front. Although temperatures are expected to be a few
degrees cooler Friday, strong winds and heavy rainfall will be
possible with storms that form.

Other storms are expected over the High Plains late Friday
afternoon and evening. These storms may move into mainly northern
Oklahoma overnight Friday into Saturday.

Another trough will move across the northern Rockies and Plains
late in the weekend into Monday. As this occurs, widely scattered
storms will be possible, especially across western Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  30
Hobart OK         80  99  76  99 /  20  30  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  80 100  79 100 /  10  10  20  10
Gage OK           75  97  72  98 /  20  20  20  20
Ponca City OK     77  93  74  93 /  10  30  50  40
Durant OK         78  95  77  95 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081800-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-
ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-
KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-
LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-
GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-
PONTOTOC-
COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-
HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...POSSIBLE DOWN INTO WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
TO AREAS WEST OF A VERNON TEXAS...TO HOBART...WEATHERFORD AND
ENID OKLAHOMA LINE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY SEVERE STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA FRIDAY INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40... WITH A MARGINAL
RISK ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL... AND HEAVY
RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.