Severe Thunderstorm Warning 565, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
246 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The primary challenge of the day is determining strong to severe
storm and heavy rainfall potential tonight through Sunday night.
Developing dangerous heat over the next several days is another
concern.

Rest of this afternoon and evening (before midnight), will
monitor for strong to severe thunderstorm potential, primarily
northwest of a Hollis to Ponca City line. As of 245 PM, a few
storms were forming near Boise City, Oklahoma in the far western
Oklahoma Panhandle as well as from Clarendon, Texas to just east
of Lubbock. These storms are expected to grow as they move east
and northeast over the next few hours.

Due to sufficient shear (0-6 km bulk shear of 20-35 kt) and
instability MLCAPE (1500-3000 J/kg), some of these storms may be
severe and become mainly multicellular. DCAPE values 900-1500
J/kg and a deeply mixed airmass support damaging wind gusts up to
70 mph as the main hazard. Hail potential remains lower due to
weak mid level lapse rates around 6 C/km. The latest SPC Day 1
Outlook handles this week. The stronger forcing and greatest
concentration of storms are expected to be over far northwestern
Oklahoma after 7 pm this evening where retraining of storms could
occur. Kept the greatest storm chances in far northwestern
Oklahoma now through midnight tonight.

After midnight tonight, a large complex of storms may affect parts
of the area, mainly in northern Oklahoma or Kansas, bringing
perhaps a few severe storms to these areas. The heavy rainfall
and flash flooding potential will increase as well as precipitable
water values are forecast to approach 2 inches, not too far from
climatological maximum values this time of year. Did not issue a
Flash Flood Watch as not sure exactly where the heaviest rain will
occur and knowing that Flash Flood Guidance is rather high. Kept
the highest rain chances near the Oklahoma and Kansas state line.
Cannot rule out storms as far south as the I-40 corridor, but
stronger capping should limit storm formation there.

Sunday morning, lingering showers and storms with heavy rainfall
may linger mainly over north central Oklahoma. Otherwise, warm and
muggy conditions are expected.

Sunday afternoon and evening, additional strong to severe storms
may form across the area, though the exact location and timing
remains uncertain. Storms late tonight into early Sunday will
leave an outflow boundary somewhere across the area with hot and
very humid conditions occurring south of this boundary. Like this
afternoon and evening, sufficient shear and instability support
multicells with damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the main
hazards. For now, kept the highest rain chances near and east of
I-35. Not all areas will receive rainfall.

High temperatures on Sunday may be a bit tricky due to cloud cover
and outflow boundary location. Used a model blend. Heat indices
could approach 105 degrees/Heat Advisory criteria south of the
outflow boundary mainly across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.
Held off with issuing a Heat Advisory for now due to the mentioned
uncertainties.

Independence Day (Monday), mainly rainfree and seasonably hot
weather can be expected. Kept 20 percent chances for storms over
southern Oklahoma, but appears subsidence behind the departing mid
level disturbance that will affect the area on Sunday should
prevent storms from forming. Similar to Sunday, heat indices could
approach 105 degrees mainly over southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas.

Monday night through next Saturday, hot weather will be the rule
during this time frame with decreasing rain chances. Heat
headlines may be necessary. Increasing mid level temperatures
should allow for stronger capping. Thus, lowered rain chances from
the previous forecast. Cannot completely rule out rain at times
during this time frame as the center of the mid/upper ridge may be
just southwest of Oklahoma and north Texas and with a few weak
disturbances coming off the High Plains, however widespread
rainfall seems unlikely.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  93  70  91 /  20  50  50  10
Hobart OK         75  97  70  96 /  20  30  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  78  99  74  98 /  10  30  40  20
Gage OK           68  86  65  94 /  60  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     70  86  66  89 /  70  50  40  10
Durant OK         78  94  74  94 /  10  20  50  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

10/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031730-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR BUFFALO... TO
WOODWARD... TO MEDFORD... TO PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA. A MARGINAL RISK
SURROUNDS THE SLIGHT RISK AND IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR
ERICK... TO WATONGA... TO NEAR STILLWATER OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER 3 PM
TODAY AND WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 3 AM TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF HALF DOLLARS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A MCS OR INTO LINE
SEGMENTS...WHICH COULD IMPACT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK IS
EAST OF A LINE FROM GUTHRIE... TO ANADARKO... TO ATOKA OKLAHOMA.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MAHALE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
532 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

OKZ033-036-TXZ083-022300-
HARMON OK-JACKSON OK-HARDEMAN TX-
532 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARMON...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND
NORTHWESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 531 PM CDT...THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
WINDS EXTENDED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DODSON TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOLLIS TO NEAR KIRKLAND...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
QUANAH...HOLLIS...GOULD...GOODLETT...LAZARE...MCQUEEN AND MCKNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 10000 3485 9978 3462 9967 3430 9971
      3428 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 257DEG 29KT 3469 10008 3457 10002 3436 10010

MAHALE