Severe Thunderstorm Warning 502, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
620 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.UPDATE...
The 15/00Z TAF discussion is below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Generally expect VFR conditions to continue through the TAF
period. Isolated showers and storms may develop across western
north Texas and southwest Oklahoma early this evening. If the
storms develop--they could briefly impact KSPS/KHBR/KLAW.
Expected probability and coverage of storms is too low to include
in TAFs.

Otherwise, south-southwest winds will weaken and back to the
southeast tonight; however, winds will become gusty once again
from the south-southwest by tomorrow afternoon.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...
First issue is storm chances this evening. Although the upper-
level shortwave moving toward the Plains will primarily be an
issue to the north, there is enough instability developing in the
west and convective inhibition decreasing to be at least watchful
for storm development. Despite outflow from the morning storms,
moisture is recovering with mid-upper 70s dewpoints advecting back
north through central southern Oklahoma and northwest through
western north Texas. If storms can develop and sustain themselves,
severe weather will be likely. Will be watching trends.

Second issue is the building heat. With the high dewpoints and
warming low-level temperatures over the next few days, heat
index values will reach the 105-110 range across much of the area.
Have expanded the heat advisory both in time through thursday
afternoon, and in area to include the remainder of southeast
Oklahoma. This will put up advisories for all of the areas with a
heat advisory criteria of 105. Farther west where the heat
advisory criteria is 110, forecast heat index values remain below
110.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  97  75  97 /  20  10  20  10
Hobart OK         74 100  75  99 /  20  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  75  98  75  98 /  30  10  10  10
Gage OK           67 102  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     74  99  74  99 /  20  20  10  10
Durant OK         75  93  74  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

04/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-152345-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
635 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK ENCOMPASSES AN AREA FROM CROWELL TEXAS TO HOBART
TO HINTON... TO WALTERS AND HENRIETTA TEXAS. SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK IS A MARGINAL RISK AND IS WEST OF A LINE FROM
HOLDENVILLE TO PAULS VALLEY TO RINGLING AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
ALVA... TO CHEYENNE... TO HOLLIS.

.TIMING...
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.IMPACTS...
THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS... WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH... AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAPROCK WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE SLOWLY... MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS FROM EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUES TO LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY AND THE WEAK DRY LINE OVER
THE PANHANDLES REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SUPPORTED BY RICH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS... STOUT
INSTABILITY REMAINS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. COUPLED WITH MODEST
SHEAR... STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS...
AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.HEAT...
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110 DEGREES AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
811 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

TXZ084-087-150145-
KNOX TX-FOARD TX-
811 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KNOX AND
SOUTHWESTERN FOARD COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 807 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHALK...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS...
WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN KNOX
AND SOUTHWESTERN FOARD COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED OR IF STORMS THREATEN YOU.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 10005 3396 9985 3369 9988 3371 10000
      3383 10000 3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 277DEG 16KT 3385 10018

MAHALE