Severe Thunderstorm Warning 473, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
439 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The primary forecast concerns will be storm chances and heavy
rain potential today through tomorrow and the influences of the
upper-level low the latter half of the week.

A complex of strong to severe storms have entered northwest Oklahoma
early this morning. Scattered storms have begun to develop ahead of
this complex. Today's forecast will be modulated by the progression
of these storms. The regeneration of storms along the outflow
boundary may continue storm propagation of the complex to the
east-southeast. During the day, expect even more widespread
showers and storms to develop in the vicinity and ahead of this
boundary due to diurnal heating and the associated increase of
instability. Severe weather threat will be mitigated some by
numerous storm mergers/interactions. Nevertheless, forecast
instability will be sufficient for severe hail in the most
intense cores. Severe wind gusts will also be a threat where there
is sufficient cold pool generation (i.e., in larger scale
complexes). Heavy rain and localized flooding will also be a
hazard.

Any surface boundary/effective cold front is expected to only make
slow southward progress due to relatively weak and nearly boundary-
parallel flow aloft. Widespread showers and storms are expected to
continue into Wednesday with only a slight shift southward. The
severe weather threat appears lower tomorrow, but heavy rain and
localized flooding will continue to be a concern.

For Thursday through Friday, the main forecast uncertainty will
be the impacts of the upper level low in Texas. The 31/00Z GFS and
ECMWF are in agreement that there will be a tight north to south
gradient of precipitation/cloud cover across the region. Elevated
instability decreases some on Thursday, so expect precipitation to
be rain with embedded thunder on the north side of the upper
level low. Precipitable waters remain elevated (>1.75"),
especially across southern Oklahoma and parts of western north
Texas. Therefore, the flooding threat may increase across the this
area.

On Saturday, a cold front is progged to pass by the region. This
should end any chance of precipitation by Sunday with
cooler/drier air across the area.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  63  76  62 /  80  70  70  40
Hobart OK         80  63  77  61 /  70  70  60  40
Wichita Falls TX  82  64  78  62 /  50  70  70  50
Gage OK           79  59  76  56 /  60  60  30  20
Ponca City OK     79  62  77  60 /  70  70  50  20
Durant OK         83  67  78  65 /  40  70  70  60

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

03/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
511 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011015-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
511 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TIMING...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WILL BE BEFORE SUNRISE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL OK FROM NOON TO 6 PM. THE LAST ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA FROM AROUND 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL UP THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND
WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 TO 70 MPH. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...
A SMALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS LINE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO THIS MORNING.
AT LEAST SMALL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS AS THEY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE I35 CORRIDOR. IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW MANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THE FOCUS NEAR THE I40 AND I44 CORRIDORS ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I40 AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.HEAVY RAINFALL...
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE RISK FOR
FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN
RECENTLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SMALL HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
418 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

OKZ018-024-311000-
CANADIAN OK-KINGFISHER OK-
418 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN AND
KINGFISHER COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

AT 415 AM CDT...A GROUP OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED AROUND
9 MILES SOUTH OF LOYAL TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OKARCHE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINGFISHER...PIEDMONT...OKARCHE...CASHION...DOVER AND OMEGA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3615 9768 3573 9768 3563 9802 3568 9820
      3587 9821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0915Z 244DEG 25KT 3583 9814 3570 9802

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
422 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

OKZ005-006-009>011-311015-
ALFALFA OK-MAJOR OK-WOODS OK-ELLIS OK-WOODWARD OK-
422 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ALFALFA...
NORTHWESTERN MAJOR...WOODS...CENTRAL ELLIS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES
UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

AT 420 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AETNA TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF AVARD TO 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MOORELAND TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARGO...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODWARD...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MOORELAND...WAYNOKA...CARMEN...ALINE...
BURLINGTON...SHARON...DACOMA...MUTUAL...AMORITA...BYRON...LAMBERT...QUINLAN...
INGERSOLL...DRIFTWOOD...CAPRON...AVARD AND WALDRON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9814 3671 9830 3648 9846 3620 9896
      3625 9973 3642 9953 3656 9925 3664 9915
      3682 9903 3700 9901
TIME...MOT...LOC 0920Z 275DEG 35KT 3698 9887 3681 9892 3655 9915 3634
9953

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
424 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

OKZ011-012-311030-
MAJOR OK-GARFIELD OK-
424 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MAJOR AND
NORTHWESTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

AT 422 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER AMES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ENID...WAUKOMIS...LAHOMA...DRUMMOND...BRECKENRIDGE...AMES...CARRIER...VANCE
AIR FORCE BASE AND NORTH ENID.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3638 9769 3619 9816 3627 9824 3660 9794
      3659 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0922Z 234DEG 23KT 3626 9817

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
434 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSW FREEDOM           36.73N 99.13W
05/31/2016  M69.00 MPH       WOODWARD           OK   MESONET

&&

MAHALE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
530 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

OKZ012-013-018-019-311100-
NOBLE OK-LOGAN OK-KINGFISHER OK-GARFIELD OK-
530 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOBLE...WESTERN
LOGAN...EASTERN KINGFISHER AND SOUTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL
600 AM CDT...

AT 528 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENID TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HENNESSEY TO 7
MILES EAST OF KINGFISHER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ENID...GUTHRIE...KINGFISHER...HENNESSEY...CRESCENT...WAUKOMIS...GARBER...
CASHION...COVINGTON...DOVER...CEDAR VALLEY...MARSHALL...BRECKENRIDGE...
MULHALL...CIMARRON CITY...FAIRMONT...DOUGLAS...LOVELL...VANCE AIR FORCE
BASE AND BISON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 9748 3614 9740 3579 9744 3573 9796
      3602 9793 3636 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 1028Z 253DEG 21KT 3637 9783 3607 9779 3582 9781

MAHALE

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