Severe Thunderstorm Warning 468, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
519 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...30/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
An active aviation period can be expected through tomorrow.
Thunderstorms across the Texas Panhandle will slowly build into
western and southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas this
evening. Additionally, broken to overcast mid to high ceilings
will continue to build in from the west through the evening and
overnight. Sites impacted from thunderstorms could easily see
drops to MVFR or IFR at times this evening and overnight.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Complex convective forecast continues with little help from any
model consistency or model agreement. Main area for convective
impacts first period will be far western and southwest parts of
Oklahoma and western north Texas as storms over Texas Panhandle
tries to build east and southeast near edge of West Texas
instability axis. Other areas of potential concentration will be
south-central and southeast Oklahoma where slightly better
moisture resides near weak outflow boundary. An outflow boundary
from northern Oklahoma convection will also move slowly south
toward the I-40 corridor of central Oklahoma and could be a focus
for at least isolated thunderstorms. Majority of heavy rain will
likely be west of the body of Oklahoma and western north Texas but
eventual eastward progression of any MCS may affect southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas tonight. At this point we are
not issuing a flood watch but slow moving storms tonight will
yield the threat for heavy rain.

Wet weather will continue through at least Wednesday before drier
and cooler air filters in behind seasonably strong cold front.
Convection Tuesday and Wednesday associated with this front will
likely yield the greater threat for widespread heavy rain and need
for flood watches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  81  64  81 /  30  40  30  60
Hobart OK         64  83  65  82 /  50  40  40  60
Wichita Falls TX  64  84  66  83 /  60  40  40  50
Gage OK           60  83  62  80 /  40  30  40  70
Ponca City OK     63  81  64  81 /  40  40  30  60
Durant OK         66  84  67  83 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

23/04/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS WEST OF A LINE FROM ARNETT... TO CHICKASHA...
TO DUNCAN OKLAHOMA... INCLUDING ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A
MARGINAL RISK ENCOMPASSES THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 1 PM TODAY
THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE HALF DOLLAR TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND
60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW.

DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING SOUTH AND EAST.
MEANWHILE...MORE HUMID AIR OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

PERHAPS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR STORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.HEAVY RAINFALL..
ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...STORM SPOTTER
GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE RISK AREAS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

.HEAVY RAINFALL..
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MAHALE/THOREN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
830 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ088-089-300200-
ARCHER TX-BAYLOR TX-
830 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ARCHER AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 827 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
7 MILES EAST OF MILLERS CREEK RESERVOIR TO NEAR MEGARGEL...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEGARGEL AND WESTOVER.

LAT...LON 3340 9928 3354 9925 3349 9874 3340 9878
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 279DEG 26KT 3342 9927 3342 9893

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
836 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ052-300200-
BRYAN OK-
836 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BRYAN COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM CDT...

AT 832 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAVOY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

IF THE STORM MAINTAINS INTENSITY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL
BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BRYAN COUNTY SOON.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KEMP...ALBANY...UTICA AND WADE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED OR IF STORMS THREATEN YOU.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 9598 3387 9600 3386 9600 3384 9602
      3386 9603 3384 9604 3385 9610 3384 9615
      3382 9615 3381 9618 3380 9618 3381 9616
      3376 9618 3375 9623 3377 9629 3370 9632
      3369 9635 3373 9639 3396 9625 3386 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 213DEG 18KT 3364 9631

11

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