Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
950 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...
pops were increased across southwest oklahoma for the after
midnight period. complex of severe thunderstorms moving through
west central oklahoma is expected to continue southeast and become
a larger area of rain later. no other changes were made.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus was on the next few days, especially tonight into the
morning.

A few storms have already developed in parts of SE CO and NE NM.
Additional storms are expected to develop in this area and parts
of the Panhandles late this afternoon and evening. This activity
will likely merge into a thunderstorm complex that will move into
parts of west central and southwest OK this evening. Additional
storms will likely develop near a frontal boundary in northern OK.
This activity could also develop into a thunderstorm complex
moving S/SE across the area tonight. Some of the short term models
show these two areas eventually merging into one big line
overnight but others show them remaining somewhat separate. Either
way one or more areas of showers/storms will move across much of
the fa overnight into Tuesday morning. The highest potential for
strong to severe storms will be with the storms coming out of the
Panhandles into west central/southwest OK. This is further south
than previous forecast. Damaging straight-line winds and large
hail will be the main concerns with any severe storms.

A cold front will also move across the region tonight into Tuesday
morning. This front is expected to be in Texas by Tuesday
afternoon but additional showers and storms could develop and
affect southern parts of the fa Tuesday afternoon/evening. A few
of these storms may become strong to severe. If, how much, and how
far north showers/storms affect the fa will likely depend on what
happens tonight and how far south the front moves Tuesday.

Rain chances will continue for at least parts of the area through
Friday but the next best chance for rain will be Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday when an upper trough approaches and begins
to move across the Central/Southern Plains. This system is
expected to move east of the area Friday. Models show an upper
ridge affecting the region as the next trough moves into the
western U.S. This ridge will lead to a brief dry period before
rain chances return late this weekend as the mentioned trough
approaches the region. models disagree on timing of this system
with the latest run of the ECMWF being slower which could have an
impact on the rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  57  66  51  65 /  90  40  30  10
Hobart OK         58  64  51  65 /  80  20  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  62  73  53  68 /  70  40  50  20
Gage OK           51  59  46  63 /  80  20  20  20
Ponca City OK     53  62  48  66 /  90  30  20  10
Durant OK         64  75  57  69 /  50  50  50  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

09/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-170545-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND THE ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CHEROKEE...TO WATONGA...TO
HOBART. A SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS THE ENHANCED RISK... COVERING AN
AREA GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PONCA CITY...TO
CHANDLER...TO WAURIKA...AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
CHILDRESS TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EARLY THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY BEGINNING IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 6 PM.

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OVER 70 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES... PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN OK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A
DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. LATER THIS EVENING...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN OK.
STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP NEAR A TRIPLE POINT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE...AND PERHAPS NEAR THE
DRYLINE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...AND THEN MOVE SE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN OK JUST BEFORE SUNSET. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OK THIS EVENING.
ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND COULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT...IN ADDITION TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR TWO COMPLEXES AS THEY
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITHIN THESE
COMPLEXES...ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DIMINISH GREATLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE REMAINING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING.
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... REMNANT BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COMPLEX MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
MAINTAIN ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS... WITH A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO.

WITH THE REGION REMAINING UNDER AN ACTIVE PATTERN...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALMOST DAILY FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.