Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION IS PRIMARILY ON THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA BY 00Z... THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
00Z... ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS HIGHER THAN INITIALIZATION OR SYNOPTIC MODELS WOULD GIVE FOR
THIS EVENING. AS DISCUSSED ELSEWHERE... THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND IMPROVING WIND FIELDS WITH TIME THAT
WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AND SOME TORNADO RISK. FARTHER
NORTH... AIRMASS WILL HAVE WHAT EVOLVES INTO A MORE INVERTED-V
LOOK TO THE SOUNDING SO WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TO THE
NORTH. DRYLINE PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN LURKING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE AREA OR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT AND
WASHING OUT. BUT THEN TOMORROW IT WILL BE VERY WARM... ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 90S. THEN A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
BRING STORM CHANCES AND THEN COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  89  66  85 /  20   0  10  30
HOBART OK         56  92  64  86 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  95  67  88 /  10   0  10  30
GAGE OK           52  90  56  78 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     55  88  66  84 /  40   0  20  20
DURANT OK         65  90  68  85 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

86

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101715-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1201 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
AN ENHANCED RISK COVERS AN AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY AND
STILLWATER... SOUTH TO TECUMSEH... TO MADILL OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT
RISK IS WEST OF THE ENHANCED RISK AND COVERS AN AREA EAST OF A
LINE FROM MEDFORD... TO OKLAHOMA CITY AND LINDSEY... TO HEALDTON
OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM UNTIL
7 PM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL IN THE ENHANCED RISK AREA.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TODAY REACHING THE VICINITY OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 2 PM.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS BUT A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH A MARGINAL RISK SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM NEAR ENID AND WATONGA... TO HOBART AND ALTUS OKLAHOMA... TO
VERNON AND BENJAMIN TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

OKZ005-006-011-092030-
ALFALFA OK-MAJOR OK-WOODS OK-
251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALFALFA...CENTRAL MAJOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN WOODS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 250 PM CDT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BURLINGTON TO 5 MILES WEST OF INGERSOLL TO 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALINE TO 8 MILES EAST OF ORION...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAIRVIEW...CHEROKEE...HELENA...CARMEN...CLEO SPRINGS...ALINE...BURLINGTON...
DACOMA...AMORITA...BYRON...LAMBERT...ORIENTA...INGERSOLL...DRIFTWOOD...GREAT
SALT PLAINS LAKE AND WALDRON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
STAY ALERT AND LISTEN FOR WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 9811 3628 9828 3616 9873 3695 9853
      3700 9844 3700 9811
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 243DEG 18KT 3691 9847 3680 9849 3645 9860 3626
9864