Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ISOLATED BUT DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, A SHARP DRYLINE HAS CAUGHT UP WITH A COLD
FRONT NEARLY ALONG THE STATE LINES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALOFT, A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH THE LEFT
EXIT QUADRANT OF THE 300 MB JET MAXIMA RIGHT OVER WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN
PLACE, WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. WITH CAPE VALUES IN
THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE, THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP. LATEST OUN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING STILL
SHOWED A LOW LEVEL INVERSION CAP IN PLACE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER, LOW BASED FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG
CAPE VALUES COULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE AND/OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS UNDER THE SUPERCELL STORMS. ALTHOUGH
HAIL WILL BE OUR MOST LIKELY CONCERN, SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 50 KTS
IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER COULD CERTAINLY FAVOR A FEW TORNADOS
DEVELOPING WITH THESE STORMS. ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN
FULL AGREEMENT, THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SCENARIO, WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
FROM NOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THEN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE RATHER
QUICK MOVING, SO HYDROLOGY ISSUES/FLOODING CHANCES WOULD BE LOW.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE RAMPING DOWN TOWARD THE MIDNIGHT HOURS
WITH POPS DECREASING WELL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR PUSH THROUGH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM, WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WITH
MORE MILDER AND SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE SYSTEM COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL AGAIN
BRING POPS OF TSRA BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, BOTH GFS & ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER LARGE WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, REINTRODUCING LOW TSRA POPS FOR LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  77  50  79 /  50   0   0   0
HOBART OK         51  77  49  79 /  30   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  81  53  84 /  40   0   0  10
GAGE OK           48  73  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     57  74  48  76 /  80  10   0   0
DURANT OK         62  82  56  84 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/68

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271015-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1125 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS EAST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE TO LAWTON
AND WICHITA FALLS...AND WEST OF HOLDENVILLE AND DURANT.
LOCATIONS WEST AND EAST OF THE MODERATE RISK ARE IN AN ENHANCED
RISK.

TIMING...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE THREAT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ORGANIZED
AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE AFTER 2 PM THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN STORM INITIATION AREA IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STORMS WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THIS MORNING. GIANT HAIL LARGER THAN BASEBALLS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO
80 MPH AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
QUICKLY NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             CROWELL                 33.98N 99.72W
04/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       FOARD              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
353 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             1 NE MENO               36.40N 98.16W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       MAJOR              OK   PUBLIC

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
413 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             CROWELL                 33.98N 99.72W
04/26/2016  E2.50 INCH       FOARD              TX   PUBLIC

&&

MDAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
413 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

OKZ006-007-262215-
GRANT OK-ALFALFA OK-
413 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND
NORTHEASTERN ALFALFA COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 411 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF JEFFERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF DRIFTWOOD ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEDFORD...WAKITA...MANCHESTER...RENFROW...NORTHEASTERN GREAT SALT PLAINS
LAKE AND WALDRON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3661 9792 3680 9832 3700 9822 3700 9751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 210DEG 32KT 3677 9790

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
420 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

OKZ036-037-262145-
TILLMAN OK-JACKSON OK-
420 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TILLMAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 418 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
FARGO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED OR IF STORMS THREATEN YOU.

&&

LAT...LON 3470 9919 3465 9909 3464 9910 3464 9907
      3447 9876 3434 9904 3453 9939
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 227DEG 31KT 3436 9927

3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
425 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             7 N VERNON              34.25N 99.29W
04/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       WILBARGER          TX   STORM CHASER

&&

MDAY