Flash Flood Warning 97, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
328 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms continue to intensify and spread southward early
this morning near the KS/OK border along an ~850 mb baroclinic
zone. Precip loading and high DCAPE could result in some severe
wind gusts, along with localized flooding as storms train. This
activity is likely to continue through the early afternoon hours
as a mid to upper shortwave trough progresses across the central
plains and into the central mid west with height falls accompanying
it. Later this afternoon, moist convection appears it will develop
south of any decaying precip over NE OK along a reinforced surface
surface boundary extending NW to SE from around GAG/WRR...to
OKC...to perhaps as far SE as ADH. These storms could become
strong to severe with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Late
tonight through early Saturday morning, a complex appeada.rs
possible across central and north central OK as another mid to
upper shortwave trough moves out of the Rockies and fairly stout
LLJ develops. Strong mid level WAA will also be present,
especially by early morning Saturday. Becoming a bit concerned
with regards to flash flooding along and north of I40 through
Saturday morning considering all of the previous features in
place, but it's too difficult to determine exactly where the
heaviest rainfall will occur at this time to issue any headlines.

A few storms will still be possible Saturday afternoon and evening
along any residual boundaries, but overall coverage should
diminish greatly as the mid to upper trough axis moves into AR. By
early next week, the mid to upper ridge will extend back overhead
and precip chances will disappear. Heat will return to the region
with highs creeping into the upper 90s and low 100s area wide by
Tue. However, drier boundary layer conditions should keep heat
index values low enough to avoid any heat advisory headlines.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  72  92  73 /  50  50  30  40
Hobart OK         96  73  97  74 /  30  50  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  97  75  99  76 /  20  30  20  10
Gage OK           94  68  94  72 /  40  30  30  20
Ponca City OK     86  71  89  73 /  50  40  40  30
Durant OK         96  75  96  75 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

14/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-300330-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-
WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1027 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. OTHERWISE... HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS OF ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN... FREQUENT LIGHTNING... AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
219 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

OKZ006-007-290800-
GRANT OK-ALFALFA OK-
219 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GRANT AND ALFALFA
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 217 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BYRON...MOVING
SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3660 9777 3659 9810 3658 9811 3656 9853
      3699 9854 3700 9790
TIME...MOT...LOC 0717Z 346DEG 20KT 3688 9824

MAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
323 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

OKZ007-008-290900-
GRANT OK-KAY OK-
323 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GRANT AND WEST CENTRAL
KAY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 321 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF
MEDFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LAT...LON 3682 9738 3659 9756 3679 9787 3694 9774
TIME...MOT...LOC 0821Z 305DEG 14KT 3679 9764

MAD