Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
639 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 12/12Z TAF discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning,
generally southeast of I-44. These storms may affect (or at least
be in the vicinity of) KOKC/KOUN/KLAW. Elsewhere, confidence and
expected coverage is too low to include in TAFS this morning. In
addition, lower (MVFR or perhaps IFR) ceilings may temporarily
affect KGAG and KWWR this morning. More isolated storms are
expected to develop this afternoon, but coverage is too low to
include at any sites.

Overnight, a complex of thunderstorms may approach KGAG and KWWR
toward the end of period. PROB30s were included to account for
this possibility. MVFR ceilings may also develop toward 12Z
tomorrow morning, but opted not to include in TAFS for now.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in the
vicinity of a mid-level low across southwest Oklahoma. The
HRRR, HRRRX, and the 00Z 4KM NAM indicate scattered thunderstorms
will continue to slowly shift eastward through the morning into
the afternoon. Therefore, increased shower/storm chances to likely
along and southeast of Interstate-44 this morning. The primary
threat will be localized flooding as these storms are very
efficient rain producers (based on radar and surface
observations).

A MCS is expected to develop across the High Plains later
today/tonight. Remnants from the MCS may affect northwest Oklahoma
early Monday morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop once again Monday afternoon. Greatest risk
will be along and east of Interstate-35, where there will be lowered
heights aloft.

By Tuesday, a compact mid-level trough is expected to move into
the Great Plains. Current model consensus still indicates the
greatest ascent will stay north of Oklahoma. However, effective
bulk shear around 30 knots and MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg would be
sufficient for severe storms/supercells if any storms are able to
develop in Oklahoma.

Hot temperatures--especially across western Oklahoma and western
north Texas--are expected Tuesday through Friday. The GFS is most
aggressive with 850 mb temps 30C+ near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle
border. The ECMWF is not as aggressive with the low-level thermal
fields, but still opted to bump temperatures up slightly Thursday
and Friday. Areas east of I-35 could get close to or exceed heat
advisory criteria based on current temperature/dewpoint
forecasts.

There is still evidence--especially in the GFS--of a possible
backdoor front late in the week. Overall confidence is low, but
will cool temperatures slightly on Saturday.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  71  89  73 /  50  10  30  20
Hobart OK         90  72  94  75 /  30  10  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  89  72  94  75 /  50  20  20  10
Gage OK           91  70  94  72 /  20  30  20  10
Ponca City OK     89  71  90  74 /  30  10  30  20
Durant OK         86  71  88  74 /  60  30  30  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

17/10/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131330-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HEAVY RAIN COULD CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. GUSTY WINDS... AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE... BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD WITH
ANY STORMS. ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD... TO LAWTON... TO
PAULS VALLEY... TO ADA OKLAHOMA.

.HEAT...
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HIGH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...REACHING 100 TO 105
AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

30/26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 E DUNCAN              34.50N 97.85W
06/12/2016                   STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            STATE HIGHWAY 29 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DUNCAN                  34.50N 97.96W
06/12/2016                   STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            ONE FOOT DEEP WATER OVER US HIGHWAY 81 IN CENTRAL PART OF
            DUNCAN.

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MAYSVILLE               34.82N 97.41W
06/12/2016                   GARVIN             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONGOING FLASH FLOODING IN AND AROUND MAYSVILLE.

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S PAOLI               34.78N 97.26W
06/12/2016                   GARVIN             OK   PUBLIC

            HIGH WATER RESCUE SOUTH OF PAOLI.

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LAWTON                  34.60N 98.42W
06/12/2016                   COMANCHE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            ONE FOOT DEEP WATER FLOWER MOUND ROAD AND CACHE ROAD. SE
            60TH AND BISHOP ROAD IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH WATER. CAR
            STRANDED IN RUSHING WATER ONE MILE EAST OF INTERSTATE 44
            ON GORE AVE.

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TURNER FALLS            34.43N 97.15W
06/12/2016                   MURRAY             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PARK AREA CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. REPORTED BY MURRAY
            COUNTY SHERIFF DEPT.

&&

FM