Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1230 pM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to cont. Could see a few isolated/scattered
showers/thunderstorms across north texas into south and perhaps
central OK this aftn, however chances at any one site will
remain low. However, models show a signal for a increase in
convection overnight moving through the Red River valley and will
intro a PROB30 group at SPS late tonight into early Sunday morning.

30

&&

.prev discussion... /issued 626 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016/

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue.

ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA may be near KSPS and KLAW anytime after 14 UTC
but did not mention due to low confidence of occurrence.

Brief MVFR conditions with BR may affect a few sites before 14
UTC. Additional MVFR/IFR conditions with BR may affect a few sites
again after 06 UTC. Chances of occurrence remain too low to
mention.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Hot temperatures and low rain chances over the next several days
are the main concerns.

Today, will monitor for isolated to scattered, mainly 20 to 40
percent coverage, showers and thunderstorms associated with a
weak mid level disturbance that was located near Aspermont, Texas
as of 330 AM this morning. This disturbance is forecast to slowly
move east or northeast through the day and bring the highest rain
chances today to western north Texas and possibly far southern
Oklahoma this evening. Any shower or storm will be poorly
organized and short lived with locally heavy rain and gusty winds
up to 50 mph as the main hazards. Severe potential remains low due
to weak shear and weak mid level lapse rates. Rainfall coverage
should remain spotty at best, though there is some uncertainty
on exact rain coverage.

Highs today may be a degree or two cooler than yesterday,
especially over western north Texas and southern Oklahoma as
increasing moisture and clouds may limit heating a bit.
Most areas will be rainfree today with near average temperatures
and humid conditions expected.

Tonight, a few showers and thunderstorms may linger mainly over
southern Oklahoma near the mid level disturbance. Only kept 20 to
30 percent rain chances to account for this. Surface dewpoints
should be slightly higher than previous nights, which should keep
overnight lows up a bit. Cannot completely rule out patchy fog
formation where rainfall occurs, though did not mention due to
low confidence of occurrence.

On Sunday, low rain chances may continue mainly east of I-35
closer to the weak mid level disturbance. Any storm would move
slowly and could produce very heavy rainfall in small areas.
Otherwise, hot and humid conditions under partly sunny conditions
are expected.

Sunday night into Monday, a weakening complex of storms or two
may affect the area, moving southeastward. Kept low chances for
storms, though confidence remains low. Monday still appears
hot and very humid, though temperatures may be tricky due to
cloud cover and some nearby rain.

Monday night into Tuesday, a strong mid/upper level disturbance
will move across the Central Plains. Latest model guidance
suggested the greater potential for storms will be north of the
Kansas and Oklahoma state line where weaker capping and stronger
forcing are forecast. Stronger shear and sufficient potential
instability would favor severe storms with this system. Hot and
humid weather is expected again on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday, the hottest conditions so far this
year may invade Oklahoma and north Texas. Latest models hinted
that triple digit heat may be possible in some areas with heat
indices perhaps approaching Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees.
Humidity values may be very high as well. Rain chances appear to
be low due to warm mid level temperatures and strong capping.
There is possibility that a back door cold front may bring some
relief to the heat Friday into the weekend.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  71  89  70 /  10  10  20  20
Hobart OK         92  71  91  72 /  20  20  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  91  71  91  72 /  30  30  20  10
Gage OK           92  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  30
Ponca City OK     92  72  90  71 /   0   0  10  20
Durant OK         89  72  87  72 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

23/17/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1152 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS TODAY. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY EXCEPT WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY.

.HEAT...
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HIGH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...REACHING 100 TO
105 AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

TXZ087-111800-
KNOX TX-
1229 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM
CDT...

AT 1226 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BENJAMIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF KNOX CITY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LAT...LON 3340 9998 3377 9985 3366 9953 3340 9975
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 214DEG 18KT 3353 9984

..SPEG.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
113 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

OKZ050-111845-
LOVE OK-
113 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LOVE COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM CDT...

AT 112 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BURNEYVILLE...
MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LAT...LON 3384 9745 3389 9745 3391 9746 3407 9750
      3407 9718 3386 9727 3389 9731 3387 9731
      3385 9733 3388 9733 3388 9734 3384 9735
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 185DEG 14KT 3391 9735

..SPEG.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
133 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

TXZ084-085-111900-
WILBARGER TX-FOARD TX-
133 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WILBARGER AND EAST
CENTRAL FOARD COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 131 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THALIA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3384 9940 3387 9955 3406 9952 3405 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 193DEG 14KT 3393 9945

..SPEG.