Fire Weather Watch 21, NWS Norman, OK

768 
WWUS84 KOUN 152030
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
230 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2016

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

OKZ004-009-010-161000-
/O.UPG.KOUN.FW.A.0021.161116T1800Z-161117T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.FW.W.0023.161116T1800Z-161117T0100Z/
HARPER-ELLIS-WOODWARD-
230 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS... WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

* WIND...SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...13 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...81 TO 85 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
301 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Some patchy fog has again developed along and east of I35 early
this morning. Expect fog coverage to increase across this area
through sunrise, but it will quickly mix out after sunrise. Very
warm temps are still expected this afternoon, especially across
southwestern OK. High temps are expected to be, on average, 20
degrees above normal. This trend will continue tomorrow as the
upper ridge moves overhead and stout SW downslope flow develops.
By tomorrow afternoon widespread 850 mb temps will likely reach
into the upper teens, if not warmer. Record highs in the low to
mid 80s will be possible. Breezy south winds and dry conditions
combined with this heat will also elevated fire weather potential.
Went ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch tomorrow for
northwestern OK where an hour or two of critical conditions will
likely develop near thermal ridge axis. This is based on a drier,
and currently more accurate, depiction from the GFS dewpoints.

By Thu, the anticipated deep mid to upper trough will have moved
over CO. A stout LLJ will develop ahead of it. The strongest winds
this week still appear they will be Thu afternoon, although some
cirrostratus may limit overall mixing for some locations.
Regardless, pressure gradient and momentum transfer could eventually
result in a wind advisory. Low level moisture should increase
enough by Thursday to keep min RH from dropping below critical
levels to warrant any fire weather headlines. Afternoon temps will drop
a few degrees, but will remain well above average. The GFS remains
stubborn with its progression of the previously mentioned trough
Thu night, with the ECMWF about 6 hours faster. Both have been
fairly consistent so tried to go somewhere right between them
(NAM/DGEX?) with the timing of front thru early Fri. Will keep
low PoPs in for our region but mid level moisture continues to
look like a big problem. Chilly temps will follow the front Fri-
Sun and subfreezing lows will have impacted almost the entire FA
by Sun AM. The ECMWF and GFS begin to diverge by early next week
but it appears a quick warm up will be possible followed by
another cool down, with the possibility of some rainfall on the
extended horizon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  49  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         81  47  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  81  49  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           83  44  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     77  46  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         80  52  83  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for OKZ004-009-010.

TX...None.
&&

25/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1015 PM CST MON NOV 14 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1015 PM CST MON NOV 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

.FOG...
FOG...MAINLY CONFINED TO LOW LYING AREAS...IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BECOME
DENSE IN VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.FOG...
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AREA TO BE AFFECTED WITH
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY WHEN
WINDY CONDITIONS COULD COMBINE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
VEGETATION TO ELEVATE WILDFIRE CONCERNS.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35... THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.