Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
802 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains to the south and west of the region,
and several waves of low pressure will ride along that front
through Monday night. High pressure builds over the region Tuesday
through Thursday, then moves offshore Thursday night. A cold front
approaches from the northwest Friday and moves through Saturday
night. High pressure builds to the west Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A stationary front remains to the south and west of the local
area, cutting through PA and central NJ. Weak low pressure lies on
that boundary, centered over south-central NJ. Meanwhile, high
pressure remains anchored over northern New England. In between
those two systems, a persistent onshore flow is in place over the
region. This continues to usher abundant moisture into the CWA,
with PWATs over 2".

Will carry likely POPs for the western portions of the CWA, and
low chance for out east. As low pressure over the Ohio Valley
nudges to the east, that will kick the low over NJ offshore.
Some Showers may produce locally heavy rain, but we are not
anticipating widespread flash flooding. Local Flood Advisories are
possible.

MUCAPE values beginning to rise to 500-1000 J/kg across western
portions of the CWA. Will keep isolated thunder in the forecast as
a result.

Showers that develop over western areas will track east through
tonight, and taper off towards daybreak. Lows will range from the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather remains in place Monday. Upper trough digs into
the Northeast, and several waves of low pressure will pass just
south of the region.

A continued warm and humid airmass remains over the area with
surface dewpoints around 70, along with PWATs near 2".

Based on latest model guidance, round of showers and
thunderstorms will impact the area Monday afternoon through Monday
evening, with activity impacting western areas in the afternoon,
and then eastern areas through Monday night. Locally heavy rain
and scattered thunderstorms remain possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term period remains dominated by upper ridging centered
over the central and southern United States while nearly zonal
flow with progressive embedded shortwaves dominates along the
US/Canadian border.

Tuesday morning will feature one shortwave exiting the northeast
coast as heights build to the west. Along the Pacific northwest
the next wave to affect the northeast will be coming onshore
Tuesday. Dry weather dominates later Tuesday into early Friday.
Timing and general placement of the shortwave, surface low, and
cold front remains similar to the previous forecast. As the upper
ridge axis moves into the northeast Thursday night into Friday and
the surface high shifts into the north Atlantic a deep southwest
flow develops and brings warmer and more humid conditions back
into the region.

The rather vigorous shortwave tracks along the northern US,
digging a trough into the upper midwest and Great Lakes by the end
of the week. Deepening surface low pressure will send a cold front
toward the area Friday into Saturday, with cold frontal passage
either late day Saturday or Saturday night.

Upper ridging builds once again Saturday night into Sunday as a
surface high builds into the upper midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Multiple waves of low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary
just south of the area through Monday.

MVFR ceilings should prevail at city terminals, although some
fluctuation between VFR and MVFR is likely. IFR to MVFR conditions
are expected for the remainder of the terminals. Widespread IFR
to MVFR conditions are expected through the overnight and into
Monday morning. Conditions slowly improve Monday afternoon.

Confidence in timing and placement of showers this evening is
low. Any shower that occurs could drop visibilities to MVFR/IFR,
and could lower ceilings and contain heavy rain.

ESE flow expected through today, then backing to the E tonight.
Generally 10-15 kt through this evening, diminishing under 10 kt
overnight.

Additional showers are possible Monday afternoon, however
confidence is low on timing and placement.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday Night...Chance of showers and possibly a tstm. MVFR or
lower conditions possible.
.Tuesday...Mainly VFR, although isolated showers are possible in the
morning.
.Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.
.Friday...chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sub-VFR possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A stationary front remains to the west of the waters. Several
waves of low pressure will pass through the waters through Monday
night, resulting in periods of showers and thunderstorms with
locally heavy rain. The pressure gradient will remain light enough
for winds and seas to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft
advisory levels Tuesday and into Friday, as a wave of low
pressure moves east of the waters Tuesday morning and high
pressure builds over the waters through Thursday. As the high
moves offshore Thursday night into Friday and a cold front
approaches from the northwest, southwest flow will increase
across the forecast waters. This flow will  persist until the
cold frontal passage Saturday night. Wind gusts, especially on
the ocean waters may approach small craft levels at times, and
ocean seas may build to near 5 feet by late Friday or Friday
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Basin average rainfall totals tonight will range from 1/2 inch to
1 inch with locally higher amounts possible.

An additional 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch of rain is then expected
Monday through Monday night, with the highest totals in the Lower
Hudson Valley.

Dry weather returns around midday Tuesday and continues into
Friday morning. Up to an inch of rainfall is possible in showers
and thunderstorms late Friday and Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
317 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-012200-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
317 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-012200-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
317 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
927 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NJZ006-104-NYZ072-073-075-176-178-010215-
HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-BRONX-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NEW YORK
(MANHATTAN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
927 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BERGEN...HUDSON...
KINGS...QUEENS...NEW YORK AND BRONX COUNTIES...

AT 927 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER UPPER WEST
SIDE...OR OVER NEW YORK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE PALISADES PARK... CLIFFSIDE
PARK...LINCOLN CENTER...WASHINGTON HEIGHTS...CARLSTADT...
WOODSIDE...GREENWICH VILLAGE...WEEHAWKEN...EDGEWATER AND LITTLE
FERRY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4055 7395 4057 7394 4056 7398 4065 7404
      4066 7403 4068 7403 4069 7402 4070 7403
      4068 7404 4068 7406 4067 7406 4078 7414
      4090 7397 4073 7370 4072 7373 4065 7372
      4065 7374 4064 7374 4054 7394
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 317DEG 17KT 4079 7400