Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the Tri-State tonight, followed by high
pressure building in from the west through Tuesday night. High
pressure moves slowly east across the area Wednesday and Wednesday
night. A trough of low pressure forms across the area Thursday
and lingers through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 8
PM.

Currently running 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE over the CWA, the region
in the right rear quadrant of a 85+ KT 300 hPa jet and having a
30-35kt 950 hPa jet passing just to the S/SE and having
sufficient Bulk Shear (30-40kt); there is a threat of scattered
severe thunderstorms area wide into this evening. HRRR has good
handle on initial line of convection so have used as primary basis
for pops into this evening.

The front slows as it pushes SE through the area, so could see a
second batch of storms a few hours after the initial round of
convection, but only chance pops for that. Showers should wind
down fairly quickly from NW to SE after midnight as the front
exits to the east (sooner if second round of storms does not
fire).

Lows tonight were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures and should be around 5 degrees above normal.

There is a high rip current risk at Atlantic Ocean Beaches into
this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Even with 700-500 hPa trough axis building into NE U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night, downsloping NW low level flow, along with
subsidence from low level ridging building in should keep the
atmosphere sufficiently dry to preclude precipitation during this
time frame. Also, given forcing only in the mid-upper levels,
would only expect some mid-high clouds from time to time.

For highs Tuesday, a blend of ECS/MET/MAV guidance, NAm 2-meter
temperatures and a mix down from 825-750 hPa per BUFKIT soundings
was used, with highs expected to be a few degrees above normal.

Lows Tuesday night were based on a blend of MET/ECS/MAV guidance
and NAM 2-meter temperatures, and should be near to slightly below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A comfortable dry air mass with temperatures averaging slightly
below normal on Wednesday will gradually heat and moisten with time.
Near normal temperatures are forecast for Thursday followed by our
next potential heat wave developing on Friday for this weekend.

Heat advisories are possible Fri. through Sun. for NYC and
surrounding areas with heat index values forecast between 95 and 100
each afternoon. Sat is expected to be the hottest day. As such,
portions of Long Island, the Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ may also
be included with heat indices slightly above the 100 degree mark for
a couple of hours in the aftn.

A thermal low level inland trough is forecast to re-develop each
afternoon starting Thursday through the weekend, increasing low
level moisture transported by the sea breezes.

This will also bring a chance of mainly afternoon and evening
scattered convection starting Friday afternoon through the weekend.

With no synoptic scale system forecast to impact the region with a
well needed widespread rain, the moderate drought could
increase across parts of the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches from the west today and moves across the
area tonight.

High impact SWAP event will continue as a line of convection
approaches from the west. Based on current trends...thunderstorms
should arrive between 20-21z most NY Metro terminals. The line of
convection may also speed up as it approaches the coast. Expect a
30-45 minute period of most significant terminal impacts as storms
should move through quickly.

Surface winds should gust 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Stronger
gusts expected in and around thunderstorms. Winds tonight shift to
the west behind the thunderstorms then northwest behind the cold
frontal passage with VFR conditions.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of afternoon
thunderstorms.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of afternoon
thunderstorms.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of afternoon
thunderstorms.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of afternoon
thunderstorms.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of afternoon
thunderstorms.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of afternoon
thunderstorms.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Tuesday through Saturday...
.Tue-Fri Morning...VFR.
.Fri Afternoon-Sat...Sub-VFR possible in isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #395 FOR THE WATERS UNTIL 8 PM.

Main threat this afternoon/evening is strong to severe storms.

Winds/seas have been slow to come up this afternoon. Have some
doubts might not make SCA levels on the coastal ocean waters west
of Fire Island inlet, but for now have just scaled back the end
time until 00z. Remainder of headlines on the coastal ocean zones
were left as is - until 6z for the central coastal ocean zone and
10z for the eastern most coastal ocean zone. However, if trends
hold, all headlines could be terminated sooner than current end
times.

Otherwise, sub-small craft conditions are expected on the waters
around Long Island through Tuesday night, with winds 10 kt or less
throughout by Tuesday afternoon.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA criteria Wednesday
through early Thursday. Wind speeds and seas are forecast to
approach SCA criteria across the Atlantic ocean coastal waters
Thursday afternoon and evening and again Friday afternoon and
evening as SW winds of 15-25 kt cause seas to build near 5 feet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
from 3/10 to 3/5 of an inch of rain is possible on average with
storms through this evening, with locally higher amounts possible.
Areas that do receive the locally heavy rainfall could
experience minor urban/poor drainage flooding.

Dry weather is forecast Tuesday through early Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening Friday
through Sunday. However, most of the area on any given day should
remain dry.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ353.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Maloit/GC
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...Maloit/GC
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/GC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1208 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

NYZ075-080-081-178-179-191615-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1208 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-078-079-176-177-191615-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
1208 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-191615-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1208 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

MALOIT

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