Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
350 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will pass through the Tri-State Region tonight. A
cold front will track through the area Friday night. The cold
front will remain nearly stationary south of the region through
the weekend. An area of low pressure will travel along the front
moving near the region Saturday night into Sunday. The frontal
system moves farther offshore Sunday night into Monday next week.
Another frontal system approaches Monday night, and moves into the
region for Tuesday. High pressure starts to build back into the
region for Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The heat index has rocketed up to around 100 degrees across New
York City and New Jersey. Surface based CAPE in this area, up
through the Lower Hudson Valley, is around 2500 J/kg per the 19Z
LAPS analysis.

The watch has been extended locally to include all of the Hudson
Valley, New York City and northeastern New Jersey. Although
instability is less east of these areas, there does remain a
severe threat through this evening and this has been reflected
locally in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, and nationally by the
Storm Prediction Center.

LAPS indicates an Energy Helicity Index in the 0-3 km range over
2, so there is a tornado threat, particularly northeastern New
Jersey into the Lower Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A thermal ridge will remain across the area on Friday.
Southwesterly winds will allow for a limited coastal influence,
with the coolest areas across eastern Connecticut and the Twin
Forks of Long Island. Mixing temperatures down from 850 millibars
yields about 90 degrees at the surface. Adding in the
superadiabatic component and potential compressional heating ahead
of the approaching cold front, several degrees can be reasonably
added to this away from the coast.

A heat advisory has therefore been issued for New York City, as a
heat index right around 95 degrees is expected and this will be
the second day in a row of this occurring.

The frontal passage Friday night appears dry at this time, so have
gone with a dry forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front remains south of the area through the weekend as high
pressure builds in at the surface. A weak area of low pressure is
forecast to form along this stalled boundary and head northeast.
There are basically 2 camps with the models: those that give the
area a more direct impact with this low which are the 12z NAM and
00z ECMWF, and those that push it out to sea, which are the 12z GFS
and 12z Canadian. These two camps are mainly do to the strength of
the surface high that builds in for the weekend. The models that
take the low out to sea are a bit stronger with the high as opposed
to those that give us a more direct hit, which are weaker with the
high. Due to the uncertainty with the track, will use a blend of
models for the forecast.

The area will lie under a jet streak in the upper levels early
Saturday night into Sunday. However, the main jet streak looks to be
north of the region.

Dry conditions for Sunday and the beginning of the new work week as
the center of high pressure moves overhead and pushes offshore.

More chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night through mid-
week as a prefrontal trough approaches and then a cold front slowly
moves through. High pressure builds in for the end of the week.

Another jet streak moves approaches and moves across the Northeast
Monday night into Tuesday night, but again, much of the jet will lie
north of our area.

High pressure starts building back into the region on Wednesday,
however a few left over rain showers will remain possible as a wave
of low pressure exits the region.

As far as temperatures, heights decrease over the weekend, so
temperatures will not be as warm, with generally 80s region-wide.
Some isolated 90 degree readings over northeast New Jersey possible
on Saturday. Slightly cooler for Sunday. Seasonable temperatures
expected for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will move through the terminals through
22Z. MVFR ceilings and strong variable gusty winds to 40KT are
possible. Brief reduction in visibility below 3SM is possible.

Southwest winds 10 to 15 KT are expected the remainder of this
afternoon. In addition, winds will be variable near thunderstorms
and actual gust values forecasted in TAFs may be exceeded. Winds
then shift to the west tonight and Friday.

VFR is expected on Friday.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for wind/ceiling changes
and for showers/thunderstorms.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for wind/ceiling changes
and for showers/thunderstorms.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible for wind/ceiling changes and
for showers/thunderstorms through 22Z.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible for wind/ceiling changes
and for showers/thunderstorms through 22Z.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for wind/ceiling changes
and for showers/thunderstorms through 22Z.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible for wind/ceiling changes
and for showers/thunderstorms after 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Friday through Tuesday...
.Friday...VFR conditions with southwest winds.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR conditions with southwest winds. The
sea breeze however will back winds closer to the south at the
coasts, especially on Sunday.
.Monday and Tuesday...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will likely remain below small craft advisory
levels through Friday. There is a low potential for 5 foot swell
to get into the eastern ocean late Friday.

The pressure gradient remains weak during the long term period.
Therefore conditions on the waters are forecast to remain below SCA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Basin average rainfall of around a quarter inch can be expected
this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy amounts of around an
inch however can be expected.

No significant widespread precipitation is expected in the long
term.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP

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