Special Marine Warning 13, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1118 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE WEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WITH S-SE WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 35 KT ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. ALSO EXPECT SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH THE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVING EAST OF NYC BY
06Z...AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND/CONNECTICUT BY 09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU
MORNING...AROUND DAYBREAK GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS.

THERE COULD BE SCT SHOWERS THU WITH A DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A GUSTY SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER ANALYSIS OF NWP MODELS ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT CLOSED LOW
WOBBLES AROUND HUDSON BAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT NW PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING IN TIME.

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING TOWARD HUDSON BAY...WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...BUT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND.

THEN ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES...QUICKLY MARCHES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...WITH A SFC LOW RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. PER LATEST
GFS/ECMWF...THE LOW WILL TRACKS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY...WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH FROM THE MID WEST IN
WAA REGIME BY MID WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NEXT CHANCE WOULD BE BRIEF SHOWERS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

COOLER...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

MOSTLY IFR WITH RAIN. LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CITY
TERMINALS 04-05Z. CHC THAT TSTMS DO NOT MAKE IT TO KBDR AND KISP.
GUSTS IN TSTMS COULD BE OVER 55KT. GUSTS AHEAD OF THE TSTM LINE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 40-45KT. LLWS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL WITH
WINDS 60-70KT AT 1500FT. IMPROVING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY... VFR WITH SW GUSTS 25-30KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS BCMG NW 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET AND CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THU DUE TO A STRONG SW FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TONIGHT...
AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR MOVES ACROSS RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHOULD MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST 10 PM TO 2 AM OR SO.

SW-W GALES EXPECTED LATE DAY THU INTO THU NIGHT...AND NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TOWARD THE WEST/SW.

THESE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE WATERS REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING TO
THE NORTH. AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY...THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY FROM THE WEST/SW.

ROUGH OCEAN SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK IN INCREASING SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 INCHES OF RAINFALL...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC. LINE OF TSTMS MOVING IN COULD PRODUCE MUCH OF
THIS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FLASHY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS NRN NJ IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ070>075-078>081-
     176>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RIDGEWOOD               40.98N  74.11W
02/24/2016                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROADS CLOSED AT SPRING AVENUE AND BERGEN COURT DUE TO
            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES.

&&

FEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MAPLEWOOD               40.73N  74.27W
02/24/2016                   ESSEX              NJ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREE LIMBS AT PARKER AVENUE
            AND VALLEY STREET.

&&

FEB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1209 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BETHEL                  41.37N  73.41W
02/24/2016                   FAIRFIELD          CT   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND WIRES DOWN INCLUDING
            WALNUT HILL ROAD...PUTNAM PARK ROAD...SOUTH STREET...AND
            CHESTNUT STREET.

&&

FEB