Small Craft Advisory 4, NWS New York, NY

728 
WHUS71 KOKX 111449
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
949 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TODAY...
...GALES LIKELY RETURN LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALL
WATERS...

ANZ350-353-355-120000-
/O.CAN.KOKX.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160111T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SC.Y.0005.160112T0000Z-160112T1100Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.A.0002.160112T1700Z-160113T1100Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
949 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
  TODAY...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH
  GUSTS UP TO 35 KT DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST
  TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FEET TODAY...SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
  TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BUILDING TO 6 TO 11 FT ONCE AGAIN BY
  TUESDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-120000-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-160112T0000Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.A.0002.160112T2300Z-160113T1100Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
949 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
  TODAY...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH
  GUSTS TO 35 KT TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT ON CENTRAL AND
  EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TODAY...AND THEN ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
  NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

376 
WHUS71 KOKX 112034
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...ROUGH CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...
...GALES EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-121100-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-160112T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.GL.A.0002.160112T2300Z-160113T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.GL.W.0003.160112T2300Z-160113T1800Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
334 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE
GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
  KT...DIMINISHING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS EVENING. WEST
  WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
  SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-121100-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0005.160111T2034Z-160112T1700Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.GL.A.0002.160112T1700Z-160113T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.GL.W.0003.160112T1700Z-160113T2300Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
334 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE
GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT INTO
  THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT.
  SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT DEVELOPING
  TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
  40 KT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS 6 TO 11 FEET
  TODAY...SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BUILDING
  TO 8 TO 12 FT TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

691 
WHUS71 KOKX 112343
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
643 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS...

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-120745-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-160112T0600Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0003.160112T2300Z-160113T1800Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
643 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
  KT...DIMINISHING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS
  20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
  SEAS 3 TO 6 FT ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TUESDAY
  NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-120745-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-160112T1700Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0003.160112T1700Z-160113T2300Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
643 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
  TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
  DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST 25 TO 35 KT WITH
  GUSTS UP TO 40 KT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS 6 TO 11
  FEET...SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BUILDING
  TO 8 TO 12 FT TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JMC

723 
WHUS71 KOKX 120442
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1142 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS...

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-121200-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-160112T0600Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0003.160112T2300Z-160113T1800Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
1142 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
  TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT ON CENTRAL AND
  EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
  WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-121200-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-160112T1700Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0003.160112T1700Z-160113T2300Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1142 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
  TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
  DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST 25 TO 35 KT WITH
  GUSTS UP TO 40 KT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT
  TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A
CLIPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...PASSING TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TRACKS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE TRI-STATE AS IT
DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN TO THE SOUTH...THEN SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. ALOFT...TROUGH PIVOTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...READINGS FALL EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN MAY RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO OR HOLD STEADY BEFORE FALLING TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH
TEMPS COULD DEPEND ON MORNING READINGS IN SPOTS.

WITH CAA BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...A MUCH COLDER DAY IS
EXPECTED AS READINGS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

GUSTY WEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH.

PATCHY STRATO-CU CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED ON AVERAGE TODAY. A FEW MORE
CLOUDS WILL BE EVIDENT NW ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT OVERALL THIS TIME FRAME. ALOFT...AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH AND UPSTREAM TROUGH AS IT DIVES OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY. TROUGH AXIS LIKELY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST BY LATE TUESDAY.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY...THE LOW DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE.  A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS PA...APPROACHING THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.

DRY TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER A DRY MORNING TUESDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS TROUGH/ASSOCIATED PVA AND COLD FRONT.

AIR ALOFT IS PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...AND WILL FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN ZONES...MAINLY LONG ISLAND AND CSTL
CT. AS SUCH...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. WHERE IT IS ALL SNOW...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD...AND WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND...TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN AND AROUND NYC METRO. ON TUESDAY...TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER
30S NW...TO THE MID 40S EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THIS DISPARITY IS DUE
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALL DAY OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A 700-500 HPA TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOR NOW IT
APPEARS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF IT...MAINLY DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY AND EXACTLY
WHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW LONG AND HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION LINGERS OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF ECMWF...BUT DO
NOTE THAT NORTH AMERICAN MODELS FAVOR A FASTER/DRIER SOLUTION.

COLD AIR SHOULD POUR IN RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER MAINLY INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SE CT TUESDAY EVENING...WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ALSO...GIVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW
LEVELS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW
ZONES FOR A COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS.

FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WEIGHED TOWARDS THE COLDEST GUIDANCE AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

WEAK NORTHERN STREAM 700-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY...SO
FIGURE THIS WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF ANY INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NW ZONES BY MIDDAY...AND PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...IT IS A DELICATE
BALANCE BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEAK RIDGING AND THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON - HOWEVER NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM 825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV./MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IT SHOULD BE BLUSTERY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND 25-35 MPH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 RANGE...AND NOT INCREASING MUCH DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS KEEPING THINGS DRY. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...KEEPING THINGS DRY THEN AS WELL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS COMPLEX...WITH POTENTIALLY
TWO COASTAL LOWS IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST SHOULD BE THE WEAKER
OF THE TWO STORMS...FORMS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A DIVING NORTHERN STREAM 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...THEN
IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST NEAR LONG ISLAND ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT
LOW FORMS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPER 700-500 HPA TROUGH/POSSIBLE CLOSED
LOW THAT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL TRACK...WITH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF KEEPING IT FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT...BUT THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE
COAST. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY-SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH THE
FIRST LOW...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST/SNOW IN THE INTERIOR
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT ON SUNDAY. NOTING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH FOR NOW IS PROGGED TO STAY MAINLY W OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...WITH MAYBE AN EXTENSION TOWARDS THE EAST INTO SE
CANADA...THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR TO ULTIMATELY SUPPORT SNOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SECOND LOW.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON WHAT...IF
ANY IMPACT...THESE SYSTEMS MAY HAVE ON THE TRI-STATE.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING FROM BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AS
NOTED ABOVE...GIVEN THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN...SO ARE THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES TRENDS LATER THIS WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY.

VFR. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING. GUSTS COULD BE AS
HIGH AS 30-35 KT AT TIMES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS TO 30-35 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE
DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS TO 30-35 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE
DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 5 KT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SW WIND G25-30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
W/NW WINDS G25-30KT TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.THURSDAY...VFR. W WINDS AROUND 15 G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT WESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. GALES LINGER THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT LIKELY FALL BELOW EARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. GALES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND LATE MORNING FOR THE EASTERN LI SOUND/PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS.

THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW LIGHTENS LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE...AND GALES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY AFTERNOON.

FOLLOWED WAVE WATCH III...BUT RAISED SEAS SLIGHTLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WATERS. ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
OCEAN WATERS.

GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE A GALE WATCH UP FOR ALL WATERS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE
CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY...AND MAYBE INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN THE HWO.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE GALES FOR
AT LEAST PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NON-OCEAN ZONES AND THE
REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN ZONES.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS BECOMES RATHER RELAXED FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE NON-
OCEAN ZONES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY...THEN SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OF GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG WEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES TODAY.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THESE BLOW OUT LOW TIDE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DO NOT REACH LOW WATER CRITERIA FOR ISSUANCE OF A LOW
WATER ADVISORY.

MARINERS STILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE LOW WATER ISSUES DUE
TO BLOW OUT TIDES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...FEB/BC
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
430 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-120930-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
430 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ350-353-355-120930-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
430 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...AND MAYBE
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ335-338-345-120930-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
430 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE THEY COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-340-120930-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
430 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE THEY COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

MALOIT