Gale Watch 22, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
147 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will slowly approach from the south this afternoon and
tonight. A cold front will move through late Friday with showers
likely. Deepening low pressure tracks across the Northeast Friday
night into Saturday and then becomes nearly stationary across
Eastern Canada Saturday night into Sunday. A weak Alberta clipper
low and associated cold front will move through Sunday night into
Monday. High pressure builds in through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Warm advection has resulted in scattered showers tracking NE
across eastern PA.

Easterly flow veers to the SE as the front begins to return north
this afternoon. Lower clouds are moving in from the south.once
these clouds settle in, temperatures will likely remain steady
through the afternoon.

Could see some light rain or drizzle locally this afternoon.

Temps hold around 70 which is still 5-8 degrees above normal,
but 15 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Winds will be gusty from the
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Available NWP (NCEP Deterministic with 50% of the GEFS members and
the CMC and ECMWF Deterministic Runs) is in fairly good agreement
with low pressure at the triple point over SE New England by 00Z
Saturday. It remains to be seen how the subtropical low over the
Bahamas interacts with the baroclinic system, but am not currently
forecasting a lot on the QPF...around 1/2".

POPs for Friday remain unchanged in the likely range.

Temps for Friday are a bit of a challenge, but have favored warmer the
warmer GFS and ECMWF MOS based on trends and not expecting
continuous PCPN. This results in temps reaching the lower to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There is better agreement amongst the global models in the closing
off of an upper low as an amplifying negatively tilted trough moves
into the area Friday night into Saturday. 00Z ECMWF is still
somewhat slower than operational GFS while the GGEM has become the
slowest of the operational runs. This uncertainty will be accounted
for in gradually diminishing rain chances during the day Saturday.
In addition, there are differences in the axis of the heaviest rain
with both the warm conveyor belt rain to the east of the low track
and with the frontogenetic forcing to the northwest. Based on a low
track to the east of the area, discounting heavy rain band in warm
sector across Eastern LI/SE CT Friday night as noted by ECMWF. That
being said, should the upper low cutoff a bit farther west, this
solution is plausible and will have to be watched in subsequent
model run.

Strong cold advection and gusty NW winds will ensue on the backside
of the deepening upper low Saturday and continues right through the
weekend as the low occludes and becomes nearly stationary across
Eastern Canada on Sunday.

By Sunday night, another shortwave moves around the backside of the
cutoff, and low pressure and associated cold front push through
later Sunday night into Monday. There is a low chance of showers
with this features, but winds turn to the NW and increase once again.

High pressure follows for the mid week period.

Much of the time period will be marked by unseasonably cool
conditions with the exception of Monday, which is forecast to be
near normal, before cooler air filters back in behind the front for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front to the south will move northward towards the area
into this evening, and gradually pass north overnight.

Conditions gradually deteriorate heading into the evening. Good
model agreement with visibility and ceilings leading to a period
of LIFR conditions for all TAF sites starting around 06z. Keeping
drizzle in the forecast for the overnight ahead of the warm front.
Expecting temporary improvement in conditions towards mid-morning
on Friday, before a possible return to IFR/LIFR conditions during
the day tomorrow in any developing showers.

Easterly winds expecting to remain gusty ahead of the front, and
diminish this evening after the loss of daytime heating and as the
gradient relaxes.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Gusty easterly winds diminishing this evening.
LIFR conditions may develop earlier than forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: LIFR conditions may develop earlier than
forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: Gusty easterly winds diminishing this evening.
LIFR conditions may develop earlier than forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: Gusty easterly winds diminishing this evening.
LIFR conditions may develop earlier than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Gusty easterly winds diminishing this evening.
LIFR conditions may develop earlier than forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: Gusty easterly winds diminishing this evening.
LIFR conditions may develop earlier than forecast.

.Outlook for 18Z Friday through Tuesday...
.18Z FRI...Showers with MVFR or lower conditions likely. NW winds
G30-35KT developing late Friday night.
.SAT... NW winds G30-35KT. Chance of MVFR early.
.SAT NIGHT...Mainly VFR. W winds G25KT.
.SUN...VFR. W winds G30KT.
.SUN NIGHT...Mainly VFR. W winds G20KT.
.MON...Mainly VFR. W winds G20KT in the afternoon.
.TUE...Mainly VFR. NW winds G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA now in effect for ANZ350, eastern Ocean waters, through
midnight. East winds, as expected, are increasing, and seas are up
to 4 ft, with 5 footers likely. Otherwise, winds should remain just
below SCA levels this afternoon elsewhere with gusts into the
lower 20 KT range. Ocean seas west of Moriches Inlet NY are
expected to remain under 5 FT.

After a lull in winds Friday as a frontal boundary moves through.

Long Term:  There is the potential for W-NW gales stating Saturday and
continuing through the weekend, especially on the ocean, in the wake
of the frontal system and deepening low to the north. Winds should
diminish later Sunday, but turn NW and increase behind a cold front
Monday.

Seas build and will remain rather rough through much of the period
due to the gusty winds. Followed Nearshore Wave Prediction guidance,
and Wave Watch III output.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall overnight into Friday night should average around 1/2".
No hydrologic problems are expected. There after, no significant
rainfall is expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect the western Long
Island Sound and for the south shore of Nassau County. Tidal
departures between 1/2 and 1 1/2 ft are expected which will cause
some locations to experience brief minor tidal flooding of the
more vulnerable shore roads and/or adjacent properties.

The potential also remains for minor coastal flooding ahead of an
approaching frontal system with the Fri afternoon high tide cycles.
Generally 1-2 ft departures are needed for minor flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Tongue/DW
NEAR TERM...Tongue/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...Tongue
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...CB/IRD
MARINE...Tongue/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...Tongue/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>