Gale Watch 15, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THIS MORNING...THEN WILL SLIDE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND PASS THROUGH BY LATE DAY ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK. SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

SKC WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
SET PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN NYC...TO LOWER 30S JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
CITY...TO 20S MOST ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN SOME VALLEY SPOTS WELL NW OF
NYC AND ALSO IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS COULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE BUILDS AND SFC HIGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH...WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE. AWAY FROM THE WATER
EXPECT 55-60. LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT ARE TRICKIER...HAVE FCST
LOWER/MID 50S THERE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF WARMER
TEMPS AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE RETURN FLOW COOLS THINGS OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NOT AS COLD WED NIGHT WITH CONTINUED RETURN FLOW. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...AND 30S IN THE USUALLY COLDER LONG
ISLAND PINE BARRENS AND SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SPRING IS NOT ON ITS WAY ANY TIME SOON!

EXAMINATION OF THE ENSEMBLE OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE 11
AVAILABLE AWIPS MEMBERS OF THE GEFS SUGGESTS GOOD PREDICTABILITY
OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PREDICTABILITY THEN
DIMINISHES QUICKLY NEXT WEEK.

JET STREAK COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES RESULTS IN
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THUS OUR REGION GOES INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND WARMING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE DROPPED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS ALL NWP SUPPORTS A DRY DAY. COASTAL AREAS
WILL STAY IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY WITH FLOW OFF THE WATER.

SHOWERS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

MAIN FEATURE FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 125+ KT JET THAT DIVES OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA ON SATURDAY AND DRIVES AN ARCTIC FRONT THOUGH OUR
AREA SATURDAY EVENING. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO 800 HPA...EXPECTING A WIND EVENT FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MAY EXCEED THAT OF MON NIGHT. GFS PROFILES
SUPPORT GUSTS TO 50 KT JUST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
WILL THUS INCLUDE THIS HAZARD IN THE HWO.

2-3 SIGMA BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL ON SUNDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND -14 C.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE SNOW TO RAIN. PREDICTABILITY IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.
IT COULD JUST REMAIN DRY AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BUILDS TO SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE DAY.

VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
AT THE TERMINALS OUTSIDE THE NYC METRO WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO W THEN SW THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. LLWS POSSIBLE STARTING LATE AT NIGHT.
.THU...VFR. CHC LLWS. SW GUSTS 25KT.
.THU NIGHT-FRI...SUB-VFR AND RAIN LIKELY. LLWS. SW GUSTS 30KT
SHIFTING NW LATE FRI.
.SAT...VFR. WSW GUSTS 30-40KT.
.SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 25-35KT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO ABATE FROM W-E ON THE
OCEAN UNTIL DAYBREAK WITH THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERS OVERHEAD.

QUIET DAYTIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS...THEN SCA CONDS ARE
LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND AS S-SW FLOW
INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH. GUSTS COULD
PEAK CLOSE TO 35 KT ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
A LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS AND CAPS GUST POTENTIAL TO MINIMAL
SCA AT WORST.

LONG TERM...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITION APPEARS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY THOUGHT FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
ON THE OCEAN. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN GALES FOR ALL WATERS WITH A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
STORM FORCE GUSTS. AN OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR
GALE FORCE WINDS HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE GALES LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN AN INCH OF QPF ON AVERAGE OVER THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES
ANTICIPATED. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND OR THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM/PW
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/JM/TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-301100-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
410 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE REGION ON VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT OF 50 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES CAN BE DAMAGING AND LEAD TO POWER
OUTAGES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-301100-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
410 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GALES FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.