Coastal Flood Statement 20, NWS New York, NY

402 
WHUS41 KOKX 052340
CFWOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
740 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

...MINOR TO LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY
ALONG THE ATLANTIC FACING SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY...

NYZ179-061000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.RP.S.0011.160906T1000Z-160906T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.Y.0022.160906T0200Z-160906T0700Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.Y.0023.160906T1400Z-160906T1900Z/
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
740 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
TUESDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM
EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.

* RIP CURRENT RISK...HIGH.

* SURF HEIGHT...6 TO 8 FEET.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS 
  TONIGHT AND 2 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS TUESDAY.

* TIMING...COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT
  AND TUESDAY. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS 
  AND/OR ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE OR WAVE 
  SPLASHOVER. MAJORITY OF ROADS REMAIN PASSABLE WITH ONLY 
  ISOLATED CLOSURES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND 
  IMPACT ON PROPERTY IS MINIMAL.

* LIGHTNING RISK...NONE.

&&

...SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.......FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.........CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW/MHHW).................

FREEPORT GAUGE NY....1205 AM.....5.0-5.3/0.5-0.8......MINOR....
POINT LOOKOUT NY.....1108 PM.....5.1-5.6/0.5-1.0......MINOR....
E ROCKAWAY NY........1121 PM.....5.5-6.0/0.5-1.0......MINOR....


...SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR TUESDAY...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.......FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.........CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW/MHHW).................

FREEPORT GAUGE NY....1235 PM.....5.1-5.6/0.6-1.1......MINOR....
POINT LOOKOUT NY.....1138 AM.....5.5-6.0/0.8-1.3......MINOR....
E ROCKAWAY NY........1151 AM.....6.0-6.5/1.8-2.3......MINOR....

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. TALK TO LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH OFFICIALS TO
LEARN ABOUT ANY SURF HAZARDS AND HEED THEIR ADVICE. PAY ATTENTION
TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS AND SWIM IN LIFE GUARDED AREAS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...
BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TOWARD THE BEACH. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM
DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NYZ071-177-061000-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.S.0020.160906T0500Z-160906T0900Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.S.0021.160906T1800Z-160906T2100Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NORTHERN NASSAU-
740 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

...WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD... 
  WESTCHESTER AND NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTIES.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS 
  TONIGHT AND 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS TUESDAY.

* TIMING...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AROUND 3 AM EDT 
  AND AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 3 
  PM.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER.

$$

293 
WHUS41 KOKX 052354
CFWOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
754 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

...MINOR TO LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY
ALONG THE ATLANTIC FACING SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TUESDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF
KINGS...SOUTHERN QUEENS...AND SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTIES...

NYZ179-061000-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.Y.0022.160906T0200Z-160906T0700Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.Y.0023.160906T1400Z-160906T1900Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.RP.S.0011.160906T1000Z-160906T2300Z/
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
754 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
TUESDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM
EDT TUESDAY...

* RIP CURRENT RISK...HIGH.

* SURF HEIGHT...6 TO 8 FEET.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND ATLANTIC BEACHES OF NASSAU
  COUNTY.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS 
  TONIGHT AND 2 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS TUESDAY.

* TIMING...COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT 
  AND TUESDAY. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS 
  AND/OR ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE OR WAVE 
  SPLASHOVER. MAJORITY OF ROADS REMAIN PASSABLE WITH ONLY 
  ISOLATED CLOSURES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND 
  IMPACT ON PROPERTY IS MINIMAL.

* LIGHTNING RISK...NONE.

&&

...SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.......FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.........CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW/MHHW).................

FREEPORT GAUGE NY....1205 AM.....5.0-5.3/0.5-0.8......MINOR....
POINT LOOKOUT NY.....1108 PM.....5.1-5.6/0.5-1.0......MINOR....
E ROCKAWAY NY........1121 PM.....5.5-6.0/0.5-1.0......MINOR....


...SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR TUESDAY...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.......FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.........CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW/MHHW).................

FREEPORT GAUGE NY....1235 PM.....5.1-5.6/0.6-1.1......MINOR....
POINT LOOKOUT NY.....1138 AM.....5.5-6.0/0.8-1.3......MINOR....
E ROCKAWAY NY........1151 AM.....6.0-6.5/1.8-2.3......MINOR....

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. TALK TO LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH OFFICIALS TO
LEARN ABOUT ANY SURF HAZARDS AND HEED THEIR ADVICE. PAY ATTENTION
TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS AND SWIM IN LIFE GUARDED AREAS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...
BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TOWARD THE BEACH. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM
DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.

&&

$$

NYZ075-178-061000-
/O.EXA.KOKX.RP.S.0011.160906T1000Z-160906T2300Z/
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
754 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.

* RIP CURRENT RISK...HIGH.

* SURF HEIGHT...6 TO 8 FEET.

* LOCATIONS...ATLANTIC BEACHES OF KINGS AND SOUTHERN QUEENS.

* TIMING...DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

* LIGHTNING RISK...NONE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. TALK TO LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH OFFICIALS TO LEARN
ABOUT ANY SURF HAZARDS AND HEED THEIR ADVICE. PAY ATTENTION TO
FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS AND SWIM IN LIFE GUARDED AREAS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...
BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TOWARD THE BEACH. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM
DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NYZ071-177-061000-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.S.0020.160906T0500Z-160906T0900Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.S.0021.160906T1800Z-160906T2100Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NORTHERN NASSAU-
754 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

...WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD... 
  WESTCHESTER AND NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTIES.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS 
  TONIGHT AND 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS TUESDAY.

* TIMING...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AROUND 3 AM EDT 
  AND AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 3 
  PM.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER.

$$

571 
WHUS41 KOKX 060836
CFWOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
436 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...MINOR TO LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC FACING SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF KINGS...
SOUTHERN QUEENS...AND SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTIES...

CTZ009-NYZ071-177-061700-
/O.CAN.KOKX.CF.S.0020.000000T0000Z-160906T0900Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.S.0021.160906T1800Z-160906T2100Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NORTHERN NASSAU-
436 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS
TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD... 
  WESTCHESTER AND NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTIES.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...1.5 TO 2.0 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS.

* TIMING...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER.

$$

NYZ179-061700-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.Y.0023.160906T1400Z-160906T1900Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.RP.S.0011.160906T1000Z-160906T2300Z/
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
436 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* RIP CURRENT RISK...HIGH.

* SURF HEIGHT...6 TO 8 FEET.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND ATLANTIC BEACHES OF NASSAU 
  COUNTY.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...1.5 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS.

* TIMING...MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE
  HIGH TIDE CYCLE TODAY. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

* IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS 
  AND/OR ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE OR WAVE 
  SPLASHOVER. MAJORITY OF ROADS REMAIN PASSABLE WITH ONLY 
  ISOLATED CLOSURES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND 
  IMPACT ON PROPERTY IS MINIMAL.

* LIGHTNING RISK...NONE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. TALK TO LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH OFFICIALS TO
LEARN ABOUT ANY SURF HAZARDS AND HEED THEIR ADVICE. PAY ATTENTION
TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS AND SWIM IN LIFE GUARDED AREAS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...
BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TOWARD THE BEACH. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM
DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.

&&


...SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR TODAY...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.......FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.........CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW/MHHW).................

FREEPORT GAUGE NY....1235 PM.....5.1-5.6/0.6-1.1......MINOR....
POINT LOOKOUT NY.....1138 AM.....5.5-6.0/0.8-1.3......MINOR....
E ROCKAWAY NY........1151 AM.....5.5-5.8/0.5-0.8......NONE....


$$

NYZ074-061700-
/O.NEW.KOKX.CF.S.0022.160906T1500Z-160906T1800Z/
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
436 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS
TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AROUND STATEN ISLAND.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...1.5 TO 2.0 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TODAY.

* TIMING...AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TODAY.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

$$

NYZ075-178-061700-
/O.CON.KOKX.RP.S.0011.160906T1000Z-160906T2300Z/
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
436 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* RIP CURRENT RISK...HIGH.

* SURF HEIGHT...6 TO 8 FEET.

* LOCATIONS...ATLANTIC BEACHES OF KINGS AND SOUTHERN QUEENS.

* TIMING...TODAY.

* LIGHTNING RISK...NONE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. TALK TO LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH OFFICIALS TO
LEARN ABOUT ANY SURF HAZARDS AND HEED THEIR ADVICE. PAY ATTENTION
TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS AND SWIM IN LIFE GUARDED AREAS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...
BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TOWARD THE BEACH. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM
DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
156 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine will meander south of Long Island
into the middle of the week, then exits to the northeast. A weak
cold front passes through from late Thursday into Friday morning.
Another cold front follows next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Based on the latest observations and near term forecast trends,
minor changes were made to the hourly temperatures, dew point
temperatures and POPs. POPs were lowered somewhat as dry air
intrudes into the outer rain bands of Hermine and morning sounding
from OKX shows a good deal of dry air to overcome for
precipitation to reach the surface.

Latest radar shows the outer rain band associated with Hermine
around 60 miles southeast of Montauk Point, which is moving
slowly west.

Current forecast appears on track.

Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine is drifting slowly northward, with
some retrogression towards the NW expected today. This should
bring an increase in clouds over mainly the SE 1/2 of the CWA and
light rain to Suffolk County and SE CT.

This should also result in an increase in winds over the area with
gusts to 35-45 mph possible over SE CT/Suffolk County and mainly 25-35
mph elsewhere by late afternoon.

There is a high risk of rip currents at Atlantic Beaches today.

Highs today were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures and a mix down from 900-875 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal over
western zones and near normal over eastern zones.

Refer to the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane
Center and the Hurricane Local Statements issued by this office
for more information on potential impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Models continue to change their tune with respect to the track of
Hermine. Latest ECMWF/CMC/NAM have Hermine Fujiwara around a 500
hPa low to its south and continue to retrograde NW and (in the
case of the CMC/NAM then west) towards Long Island. The GFS does
not have anywhere near as much retrogression, but is slow to move
the storm east of Cape Cod. NHC track is generally to the right
side of most 00z guidance, and was followed for the wind forecast.
However, did adjust sky cover and rain forecast to reflect a bit
more retrogression/slower lifting of the storm to the NE as
suggested by 00z guidance.

Noting that the models do weaken hermine quite a bit as it
retrogrades, do not see any need to change any wind related
headlines at this time.

For now have winds diminishing fairly rapidly by late Monday, this
will help limit coastal flood threat through tonights high tide
cycle. Refer to the Tides and Coastal Flood Section of the AFD
for details.

Dangerous Rip Currents are expected into the middle of the week.

For now bring a chance of rain to mainly the SE 1/2 of the CWA
Tuesday/Tuesday night, kept Orange County mainly dry with slight
chance pops in between.

Lows tonight were based on a blend of MAV/ECS/MET guidance and NAM
2-meter temperatures and should be a few degrees above normal.

A blend of MAV/ECS/MET guidance, NAM and ECWMF 2-meter
temperatures and a mix down from 950-875 hPa was used for highs
Tuesday. Highs should be a few degrees above normal. However, if
00z guidance trends hold, then could end up 5-10 degrees cooler,
especially over eastern zones.

Lows Tuesday night were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance
and NAM and ECMWF 2-meter temperatures and should be around 5-10
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is reasonable clustering...outside of the NAM...that Hermine
will be somewhere west of 70W longitude near the 40N parallel by Wed
morning and then tracks NE away from the area through Wed night.
Forecast reflects this thinking. Have increased pops and winds from
previous forecast...but did not want to completely jump on this
radical change despite the fact that there is good agreement amongst
the NWP models. There is also support from the EPS in a further
westward track of Hermine before she departs out to sea for good.

Hermine will continue to weaken through Wed and likely be at least
a 1000mb low S-SE of Montauk by 12z Wed. The storm will be over
cooler water by this time and will aide in the rapid
weakening of the system and also shrink the tropical storm force
wind field. Not expecting tropical storm force winds on land
attm...but will be keeping current headlines as is due to the
continued uncertainty with this system. If the storm retrogrades
even further west than forecast and is stronger than model
guidance indicates then tropical storm force winds would be
possible...mainly portions of Suffolk County and portions of
coastal CT. Storm surge and dangerous rip currents will likely
continue to be the main impacts from this system on Wed.

Hermine finally departs Wed night...although late summer heat
returns for the end of the week. H85 temps between 17-20C are
expected Thu. This level should be realized with mixing resulting
in much of the area reaching the 90 degree mark. Heat indices of
mid 90s are possible with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Weak cool front comes through Thu night. Dry forecast due to lack
of forcing. 90 could be realized again Fri/Sat in the NYC/NE NJ
area with mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Heat advsy not expected for
NYC as heat indices are only reaching 95 on Thu.

Warm front lifts N on Sat with a pre-frontal trough developing to
the west. Either of these could spark a shower...maybe a tstm
during the aftn. Cold front tracks across Sat night or Sun (12z &
00z EC is faster than the GFS)...but again lack of upper level
dynamics indicates a dry passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Hermine is now slowly moving to the northwest. As a result,aviation
impacts will begin to increase, especially across eastern airfields.

Precipitation shield continues to retrograde slowly to the west,
but sensible weather of rain will likely have a tough time
developing as it tries to overcome low dewpoint air in place
across the region.

No significant changes were made to previous set of TAFs. Winds
continue to be a challenge, as the battle rages between the
approaching remnants of Hermine, and the gradual weakening of the
overall system forecast to occur. Surface observations show that winds
have veered 10 to 30 degrees from previous forecasts, so have made
that adjustment before backing them back to almost due north later
today and tonight. Wind gusts continue to pick up, and expect the
trend to continue. While there might be a slight lull this
evening, expect strongest winds to affect the region during the
late night/morning hours on Tuesday.

As for weather, have introduce a steady rain and MVFR cigs into
KISP, KBDR and KGON overnight tonight...between 05 and 09z.
Elsewhere, have maintained VFR conditions through 18z.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in category forecast.
Moderate confidence in wind forecast.

.Outlook for 18Z Tuesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday...Strong northerly winds 15-25 kt gusts 25 to 35kt from
Hermine....with highest gusts over eastern airfields. Chance of
MVFR or lower in any rain bands which impact the area.
.Tuesday Night...Northerly winds 10-15 kt gusts to near 20 kt.
MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain.
.Wednesday-Wednesday Night...MVFR or lower possible with a chance
of showers. Showers ending at night. N-NW winds 10-15 kt with
gusts to near 20 kt during the day.
.Thursday-Thursday Night...VFR with southwest flow.
.Friday...VFR with west flow.
.Saturday...Possible restrictions in showers with approaching cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on
track.

Please refer to the latest forecasts and advisories from the
National Hurricane Center for the latest information.

Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine should bring at least gusts to
Gale/Tropical Storm Force over all waters but New York Harbor from
later today into Tonight and possibly into Tuesday, so will
continue with existing headlines as is. For now it appears that
winds will fall below Gale/Tropical Storm Force on all waters by
Tuesday evening, with SCA conditions likely for Tuesday night.

With an more westward track to Hermine there is still the potential
for tropical storm force winds on Wed on portions of the coastal
waters. This will depend on how far west she retrogrades before
tracking NE out to sea Wed night. As such no changes to current
headlines. Hermine will also be weakening with time...therefore seas
will also be diminishing. Currently expect wind gusts and seas to
fall below sca levels from west to east late wed and wed
night...although this may take slightly longer if Hermine
retrogrades further west than forecast and is a bit stronger than
model guidance is indicating.

Sub-advsy conds are then expected through the remainder of the
forecast period.

Sub-advsy conds are then expected through the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to severe drought conditions continue for Suffolk county,
refer to the latest local drought statement for details.

Dry conditions into this afternoon.

Currently forecasting around 1/4 to 3/5 of an inch of rain over SE
CT and Suffolk County through Wednesday, with less than a 1/4 of
an inch currently forecast elsewhere. However, if latest model
trends with Hermine hold, then rain amounts might need to be
doubled, especially over eastern areas. Even if amounts are
doubled, little or no significant hydrologic impacts are
expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Significantly lower surge is expected with Hermine today...with
minor coastal flooding relegated mainly to the south shore of Long
Island during today and tonight high tides cycle...as Hermine has
remained well se of LI.

Model spread in Hermine location is moderate for the next 24 to 36
hours...but there seems to be consensus in the operational models in
Hermine retrograding slowly back westward towards the coast. Refer
to the National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for
further details on Hermine.

Concern for Tue/Wed is that after several days of large se swells
and ekman transport of water towards the coast...a slight veering of
winds to a more favorable northeast direction Tuesday into Wednesday
would present a threat of more widespread minor to locally moderate
coastal flooding during the higher daytime tides. The moderate
flooding threat would be particularly for the south shore bays of
Long Island. Expect surge guidance to trend higher for midweek over
the next 24 hours if this retrograding forecast holds. The competing
factor with rising surge would be astronomical tides slowly dropping
through midweek.

Additionally...expectation is for high surf to continue to slowly
build into Tuesday. This surf on top of stormtide will continue
beach erosion and dangerous rip currents through midweek. If total
water levels do approach moderate flood levels for Tue/Wed...the
threat for some dune erosion and isolated washovers would increase.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Tropical Storm Warning for CTZ010>012.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NYZ179.
     Tropical Storm Warning for NYZ078>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ338.
     Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ330-335-340-345-350-353-355.
&&

SYNOPSIS...24/Maloit
NEAR TERM...GC/Maloit/JP
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC/99
MARINE...24/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...24/Maloit
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1119 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

ANZ330-335-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ010>012-NYZ078>081-060330-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1119 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ338-CTZ005>009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-177-060330-
NEW YORK HARBOR-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
1119 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ178-179-060330-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1119 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 1 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

JMC