Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
647 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Deep cyclone centered over western Minnesota this afternoon will
undergo an occlusion next 12 to 24 hours with occluded front
swinging across our area later tonight preceded by large area of
much needed showers this afternoon and tonight that will include
some thunderstorm activity as it moves through our area. Models
develop a narrow embedded line of convection (QLCS) far eastern
Arkansas around 19z and work it to just east of Memphis by 21z and
nearing the Tennessee River around 23z and to interstate 65 about
02z. Once line gets east of interstate 65 it begins to weaken.
Buoyancy looks weak to me but strong low level shear in
association with strong low level jet is enough for concern that
storms could drag jet down to the ground. Also looking at shear
profiles on hodographs along with helicity swaths, think area of
greatest concern would be in a corridor along and south of
interstate 40 into the Nashville area. This would include Linden,
Waynesboro, Hohenwald, Columbia, Centerville, Franklin and
Nashville. Weakening occurs once QLCS gets east of interstate 65.
Occluded front sweeps rain to our east rather quickly after
midnight and off the plateau around daybreak Tuesday. Basically
dry Tuesday but another round of rain will move into Middle
Tennessee Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as secondary system
moves into the area from Oklahoma. Looks like another good chance
of rain coming over the weekend.

Temperature wise I don't see a major change in our temps over the
next 7 days.

Rainfall over the next 3 days could total 1.5 inches across the
north to possibly 3 inches near the Alabama border and in
southeastern Middle Tennessee down through Grundy county as Middle
Tennessee will be affected by two storm systems.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Storm system continues to move across the mid-state this evening.
Strongest area has passed CKV but will affect BNA/CSV before
midnight. Line will bring down cigs/vsbys briefly...with a period
of trailing MVFR cigs into the late evening. Conditions likely to
become VFR overnight...except CSV. VFR conditions expected after
12z all sites.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight FOR Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
501 AM CST MON NOV 28 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-291115-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
501 AM CST MON NOV 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WITH IT COMES THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREAT. AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-65,
INCLUDING COLUMBIA, PULASKI, LAWRENCEBURG, WAYNESBORO AND
CENTERVILLE WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST IMPACT. SEVERE STORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE WILL
BE MOST AFFECTED.

IN ADDITION, RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. DESPITE THE DRY WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS, THE DRY HARD SOIL COULD LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
AND PRODUCE SOME FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
638 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S NASHVILLE           36.13N  86.78W
11/28/2016                   DAVIDSON           TN   TWITTER

            TREE DOWN ON BELMONT BLVD BETWEEN GLEN ECHO AND
            WOODMONT

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1601118

BW

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