Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
328 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered convection is circulating around an upper trough axis
which resides across the mid state this afternoon. This feature will
be slowly pulling eastward over the next 24 hrs. 00Z lift is sill
expected this evening although we will begin to get some drier air
into western areas. Thus, will include 30 pops along the Plateau
with lesser values west.

On Friday, airmass looks drier as the aforementioned trough axis will
be located east of our area. Will still carry 20-30 pops as cap
erosion will commingle with neutral to weak lift.

On Friday night and Saturday, the weak nwly flow aloft will push a
boundary our way. Pops will increase, especially on Saturday when
values will reach the likely category. Drier air may then win out by
Saturday night as the boundary pushes south of our area and we
become influences by a sfc high to our north

For the near term temps, The next 36 hrs look quite warm prior to
the the expected fropa. Then, we will see temps drop down to near
normal.

In the ext fcst, the sfc high over Michigan will continue to exert
its influence and we will actually see minimal afternoon capes on
Sunday and Monday. Pops at that time will generally be 20 at best.
Then, models are hinting toward some easterly wave development with
added moisture attempting to reach our area by Tues and Wed. Euro
model is not quite on board with the influx of moisture so will
raise pops, but no higher than 50 percent.

For the ext temps, Sunday and Monday, 850 mb values will hold at 16c-
18c so despite the mostly sunny skies, highs will be no warmer than
near 90. In fact, highs should remain near 90 through the rest of
the ext period as moisture and u/l height values both increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

For KBNA can't rule out VCSH/VCTS through 00Z, but confidence is
too low to mention VCTS or anything prevailing due to isolated
coverage. There is a very small chance of MVFR VSBYS 09Z-13Z, but
confidence of occurrence is too low to mention at this time.

For KCKV, VCSH expected through 00Z, but confidence is too low to
mention VCTS or anything prevailing due to isolated coverage. Have
moderate confidence of MVFR VSBYS 07Z-14Z, but it won't be
prevalent the entire time.

For KCSV, have high confidence of VCTS through 00Z and will
probably need to prevail TSRA at some point. Have high confidence
of MVFR, possibly brief periods of IFR, VSBYS 06Z-14Z.

If TSRA directly impacts a terminal, brief LIFR conditions and
gusty winds can be expected.

Jackson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  95  75  90  72 /  20  20  20  60  10
Clarksville    73  94  74  87  68 /  10  20  30  50  10
Crossville     69  88  70  84  68 /  50  30  20  60  20
Columbia       73  95  74  90  72 /  20  20  20  60  20
Lawrenceburg   73  94  73  91  72 /  20  20  20  70  20
Waverly        73  94  74  87  69 /  10  20  30  50  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
556 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-051100-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
556 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TODAY WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGH 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

HURLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
448 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

TNZ009-042215-
MACON TN-
448 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 447 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
RED BOILING SPRINGS...OR NEAR LAFAYETTE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAFAYETTE AND RED BOILING SPRINGS.

LAT...LON 3662 8579 3661 8580 3643 8583 3641 8585
      3643 8599 3663 8614 3664 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 319DEG 7KT 3656 8593

SHAMBURGER