Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
703 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated the suite of forecast products to remove the late this
afternoon wording in the zone forecast product. Also, went with
short range model consensus for a chance of shwrs/tstms across
wrn portions of the mid state, slight chance otherwise. The reason
behind this is that consensus of short range models are showing
convection moving into this portion of the mid state, but
weakening in strength and then dissipating as they move into an
air mass that is still unstable, but with diurnal influences
ending, weakening to dissipating significantly. Made some minor
tweaks to the sky condition grids to emphasize cloud coverage
increasing across mid state west to east as convection moves into
the area, dissipates, but leaves residual cloud coverage. All in
all, this type of weather scenario seems reasonably plausible.
Also tweaked hrly temp, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Lower clouds finally dissipated with cumulus field now developing
across the region. Beginning to see some isolated convection
lining up just north of the Ohio River which in agreement with 4km
NAM. Expect to see thunderstorms break out along Ohio River later
this afternoon and move south and weaken as they approach Kentucky
border. In fact the line splits in western Kentucky around 01z.
Think the best chance for thunder will be around the Clarksville
terminal in the evening so included a vicinity there. Also think
some late night fog not out of the question but not as dense as
last night. So have fog mentioned in all terminals with Crossville
down to 1 1/2 miles in the overnight along with an ifr ceiling.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  90  71  93  73 /  40  30  10  10  10
Clarksville    70  88  70  91  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
Crossville     65  84  66  87  67 /  20  30  10  20  10
Columbia       70  90  71  93  72 /  40  30  10  20  10
Lawrenceburg   70  90  70  92  71 /  40  30  10  20  10
Waverly        71  89  71  91  73 /  40  30  10  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
844 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-160900-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
844 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1018 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

TNZ056-093-160400-
WAYNE TN-PERRY TN-
1018 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PERRY AND NORTHWESTERN
WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1017 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF OLIVE HILL...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WAYNESBORO... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAYNESBORO...LINDEN...COLLINWOOD...CLIFTON...
MOUSETAIL LANDING STATE PARK AND FLATWOODS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 8802 3548 8799 3551 8798 3553 8798
      3561 8803 3572 8800 3555 8772 3516 8776
      3532 8802 3535 8801 3536 8802 3539 8802
      3539 8799 3540 8797 3541 8798 3543 8803
      3545 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 208DEG 11KT 3540 8795

13