Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
447 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Will opt to go ahead and expand the flash flood watch westward by
adding Stewart and Montgomery counties. This will fill in the
graphic with the KY offices. Furthermore, developing thunderstorm
complex over the MO bootheel, NE ARK, and far northwestern TN is
continuing to maintain its strength. Latest HRRR shows this
activity weakening. However, NAM and GFS solutions bring a good
half inch across our northwestern CWA after 7 PM this evening. 850
mb flow to weaken slightly overnight but PVA is lated to increase.
Also, will take a closer look at pops overnight. The current 40
pop may need to be increased. Update and the expanded watch will
be issued shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop through the afternoon,
mainly over the Cumberland Plateau region. Will include tempo
group for CSV. Less certainty for BNA, so will go with VCTS, and
no mention at all for CKV. Thunderstorms may be severe with gusty
winds. Otherwise, winds will be WSW around 10kt with a few gusts
around 18kt. Lots of uncertainty tonight, so not including much
other than some patchy BR, but models indicate another MCS is
possible overnight. Will wait to include overnight storms when we
are more confident.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight FOR Clay-Cumberland-
De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Montgomery-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-
Robertson-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-White-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......05
AVIATION........21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
152 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

TNZ007>011-028>034-064>066-091000-
ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-
152 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING ONE...UP TO LOCALLY THREE
INCHES...OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100'S THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TNZ005-006-023>027-056>063-075-077>080-093>095-091000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-
PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-
BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
152 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100'S THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >=1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

31

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
545 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SW BYRDSTOWN          36.50N  85.22W
07/08/2016                   OVERTON            TN   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE DOWN ON RAYMOND ROAD NORTH OF MONROE

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1600846

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
607 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

TNZ065-066-080-082345-
WHITE TN-CUMBERLAND TN-VAN BUREN TN-
607 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHITE...NORTHEASTERN VAN BUREN
AND SOUTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 607 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SPARTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROSSVILLE...SPARTA...CRAB ORCHARD...PLEASANT HILL...LAKE TANSI...
VIRGIN FALLS STATE NATURAL AREA...
CUMBERLAND MOUNTAIN STATE PARK AND INDIAN ROCK LAKE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

LAT...LON 3576 8492 3575 8502 3577 8504 3576 8507
      3577 8510 3577 8525 3576 8527 3573 8527
      3595 8561 3606 8543 3602 8531 3599 8531
      3598 8526 3600 8526 3587 8484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 299DEG 28KT 3597 8545

WHITEHEAD