Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
303 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Severe thunderstorm watch has just gone out early this afternoon,
and will be in effect through 9 PM this evening. Ongoing line of
convection near the TN river will progress eastward ahead of a
strong upper level shortwave. Plenty of instability with MUCAPE
values up to as high as 4000 J/kg will be present ahead of the
shortwave, and some cooler temperatures in the mid levels will
allow some decent low to mid level lapse rates as well. With shear
being a bit on the weak side, chances for severe will mainly be
confined to damaging wind gusts but hail can not be ruled out with
the strong instability. PWAT values around 2 inches is also
evident on model soundings for most of the mid state, which will
help the wind threat as well as allow for some heavy rainfall with
the passing storms. Chances for showers and thunderstorms look to
continue overnight and into Thursday morning, with the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms likely coming to an end late
this evening.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms should continue during the
day Thursday, but end from west to east as the upper shortwave
continues its way eastward. Thursday afternoon will mainly have
chances confined east of I-65. Ridging will move in behind the
shortwave, and dry out the mid state briefly Thursday night and
early Friday. Models want to bring a weak cold front and some
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms late on Friday
and into the day on Saturday. SPC has a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms along the KY/TN border and to the north, so will
keep an eye on severe potential for Friday. The upper low is in
the Great Lakes region, and the GFS/ECMWF have some different
solutions to the precip timing, so did not vary too much from the
previous forecast for now which kept 30 to 50 pops Saturday.
Another weak low will continue the chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday.

The upper low looks to strengthen a bit to start the work week,
and progress slowly to the northeast. This will again keep chances
for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the day
Tuesday and another shortwave will follow behind to keep chances
on Wednesday. At this point of the long term forecast, the GFS and
ECMWF differ quite a bit in regards to precip output, so kept with
consensus for now and have slight chances. Looking further into
the long term, there isnt a significant dry period between the
models, so it appears like we are holding in a wet pattern for
awhile across the mid state.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Kept TAFs to 6 lines for brevity sake. Used FM groups for best depictions.
With this in mind, tried to tie all this up with current regional radar
trends and short range model depictions of MCS associated activity
transversing the mid state region on at least a couple of occasions thru
07/18Z. First impacts for terminals should be during the 06/22Z-07/03Z
time frame with the second one from the 07/02Z-07/14Z time frame. During
tstm activities, MVFR fog maybe experienced. Did not want to go with tstms
throughout majority of forecast, but wanted to show potential of some
lingering pcpn behind passages, and thus addressed with vcsh remarks.
Ceilings on the whole will either be VFR TO MVFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  94  76  95  76 /  60  30  10  20  30
Clarksville    74  92  77  93  74 /  60  20  10  30  40
Crossville     72  85  71  89  70 /  70  50  20  30  40
Columbia       75  94  75  95  74 /  50  20  10  20  20
Lawrenceburg   75  93  74  94  74 /  50  30  10  10  20
Waverly        76  93  77  94  74 /  50  20  10  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
204 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
204 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THIS EVENING...AND EVEN POSSIBLY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL BECOME SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID EVENING HOURS...
WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN.

HEAT INDICES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100'S
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS AT AND NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON EXPERIENCING HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAT INDICES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100'S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER THE MID STATE FRIDAY...AND MAY
TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION REQUESTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID EVENING
HOURS TODAY AND MAY BECOME NECESSARY AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >=1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

31

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             FRANKLIN                35.93N  86.84W
07/06/2016  E0.70 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1600707

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
511 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     HAIL             LEIPERS FORK            35.90N  87.00W
07/06/2016  E0.70 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1600708

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
512 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND GST     FRANKLIN                35.93N  86.84W
07/06/2016  E55 MPH          WILLIAMSON         TN   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED AN ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 55 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1600709

FB

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