Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
303 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s and low 90s across
Middle Tennessee this afternoon.  Along with dew points in the low
70s, this has allowed CAPE values to increase to 1000-1250 J/KG.
With general weakness in the upper level pattern, scattered showers
have developed across the mid-state.  As we move through the rest of
the afternoon and instability increases even more, expectations are
for many of these showers to turn into thunderstorms.  While
widespread severe weather is not expected due to relatively warmer
temperatures aloft, steep low-level lapse and drier air above 700 mb
could help a few strong storms to develop across a majority of the
mid-state. Strong straight line winds are going to be the main
threat through the early evening hours.  The main area we will have
to monitor this evening will be areas north of I-40 and west of I-65
(closer to the TN River) where slightly higher shear values will
reside due to the passage of a weak surface low to our NW.  Again,
damaging straight line winds will be the main threat, but this
threat should be very limited in areal coverage.

Bad news for the fireworks enthusiasts out there.  Independence Day
will bring more of the same. In fact, coverage of these showers and
thunderstorms will be higher and with the passage of another surface
low to our NW and the inclusion of some upper level support, we very
well could see some strong to severe thunderstorms develop by late
afternoon and evening.  Areal coverage for strong/severe storms
should be limited to those counties along and north of I-40 where
damaging straight line winds will be the main threat, but PoPs will
be higher for all of Middle Tennessee on Monday. If there's any good
news to all of this, if the timing is right, forecast soundings are
showing cloud bases will be around 4000 feet tomorrow evening. If a
window of opportunity presents itself for those with the better
shot of precipitation, ceilings should be high enough for a good
show.

The rest of the week, while not defined by the passage of a front or
a synoptic boundary will be very summer-like.  Temperatures in the
low to middle 90s each afternoon, dew points in the upper 60s and
low 70s and with general weakness in the upper level pattern, each
afternoon will offer the opportunity for scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with all of them having the potential to produce
strong winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Frontogenesis to take place to the north of middle TN during the
taf period. Thus, the widespread rainfall will be kept north.
However, 2 different slug of pva energy will effect the area. The
first of which will occur late this afternoon and into this
evening. The second will occur after sunrise on Monday. Will go
ahead and include vcnty in the taf for those 2 periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  92  74  89  74 /  30  50  60  40  30
Clarksville    74  88  72  88  73 /  60  70  70  30  30
Crossville     69  87  69  82  68 /  20  50  70  50  30
Columbia       74  92  73  88  73 /  20  40  60  50  30
Lawrenceburg   73  92  72  87  72 /  20  50  60  60  30
Waverly        75  89  73  87  74 /  50  60  70  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
512 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
512 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG
WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
406 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

TNZ032-065-066-080-032145-
WHITE TN-CUMBERLAND TN-PUTNAM TN-VAN BUREN TN-
406 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHITE...SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM...
NORTHEASTERN VAN BUREN AND WESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

AT 406 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SPARTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  THIS STORM HAS A
HISTORYOF BLOWING DOWN TREES IN SPARTA.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROSSVILLE...SPARTA...MONTEREY...PLEASANT HILL...DOYLE...VIRGIN FALLS
STATE NATURAL AREA...CUMBERLAND MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...BAKERS
CROSSROADS...LAKE TANSI AND FALL CREEK FALLS S.P..

LAT...LON 3575 8541 3598 8561 3619 8529 3618 8528
      3619 8527 3618 8526 3617 8524 3615 8521
      3614 8513 3591 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 239DEG 26KT 3593 8542

SHAMBURGER