Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
307 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated thunderstorms are beginning to pop up over the area due
to weak shortwave activity just ahead of the larger upper trough
over TX. Models have SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg this
afternoon, with some higher areas, however shear is very weak
over the region. Therefore thunderstorms will continue to develop
this afternoon and possibly become more widespread through the
evening. Thunderstorms this afternoon may develop some small hail
and brief gusty winds, but the lack of deep layer shear should
limit thunderstorm strength for the late afternoon and evening.
The ECMWF and GFS still have the upper low over TX closing off
aloft by early Thursday morning, which may help weak ridging
develop over the mid state and drop precip chances a bit before
the afternoon tomorrow.

As the upper low over TX slowly moves eastward through the
remainder of the week, shortwave energy will move through the
region and provide chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best
chances look to be Thursday afternoon, and during the day Saturday
when a Great Lakes trough drags a cold front through the
southeast. As the cold front moves through the mid state Sunday,
precip chances will decrease from west to east during the day.
Models have sped up the movement of the upper trough and cold
front a bit, so it looks like Sunday night will be dry with some
possible lingering showers on the Plateau.

Starting on Monday, northwest flow aloft will settle in, and an
upper level ridge will slowly work its way across the central US
during the work week. This will keep our region dry and highs
generally in the low to mid 80s. As of the current forecast, next
week looks to remain dry through the end of the week with
consistent temperatures to start the week, and possibly getting
into the 90s by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions generally expected thru 02/18Z. In terms of actual
impacts on terminals, tricky aviation forecast thru 02/18Z. With
unsettled atmospheric conditions, interacting with diurnal
heating/orographic influences, and no major focusing mechanisms
until around 02/12Z other than weak disturbance passages in swly
flow aloft, convective location development quite uncertain, with
local effects playing a key role. As a result, believe tstms will
occur at least around TAF sites, but not sure if they will occur
right at or close to. Thus mentioned VCTS remarks at terminals per
diurnal influences thru 02/02Z. Some MVFR all terminals to IFR fog
CKV 02/06Z-02/14Z per prevalent low level moisture pooling ahead
of sfc front expected to move into nw portions of mid state
02/09Z-02/12Z. Continued weak disturbance passages in swly flow
aloft could support light shower development in at least vicinity
of TAF sites during the 02/06Z-02/14Z time interval also. As
surface front drifts slowly sewd into mid state thru 02/18Z, and
diurnal influences come into play, along with possible continued
weak disturbances in upper flow aloft, predominate moderate
shwrs/tstms with generally MVFR vsbys/ceilings expected. Light
swly sfc winds will become light nwly after surface frontal
passage, mainly CKV/BNA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  87  69  88  69 /  30  60  50  50  40
Clarksville    67  83  65  83  66 /  30  50  40  50  50
Crossville     66  82  66  82  66 /  40  70  50  50  30
Columbia       68  86  68  86  68 /  30  60  40  50  40
Lawrenceburg   67  87  67  87  68 /  40  60  40  50  40
Waverly        67  84  66  85  67 /  30  50  40  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-021000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
500 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
311 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TNZ025-026-012045-
DICKSON TN-CHEATHAM TN-
311 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHEATHAM AND NORTHEASTERN
DICKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 311 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTH OF WHITE BLUFF...OR 9 MILES WEST OF ASHLAND
CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ASHLAND CITY...PLEASANT VIEW...CHARLOTTE AND CHEATHAM DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 8694 3625 8698 3622 8698 3620 8699
      3613 8727 3627 8739 3632 8731 3632 8729
      3633 8728 3643 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 245DEG 26KT 3624 8723

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
314 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TNZ008-009-028>030-012045-
TROUSDALE TN-SUMNER TN-MACON TN-SMITH TN-WILSON TN-
314 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SMITH...SOUTHEASTERN
SUMNER...SOUTHWESTERN MACON...NORTHEASTERN WILSON AND TROUSDALE
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 314 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED NEAR HARTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG
WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEBANON...HARTSVILLE...DICKERSON CHAPEL RECREATION AREA...
DIXON SPRINGS AND PLEASANT SHADE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 8637 3632 8648 3651 8605 3631 8589
      3622 8612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 245DEG 26KT 3633 8622

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
318 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TNZ005-023-012045-
STEWART TN-HOUSTON TN-
318 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEWART AND HOUSTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 318 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF TENNESSEE RIDGE...OR 11 MILES WEST OF ERIN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOVER...ERIN...TENNESSEE RIDGE...CUMBERLAND CITY...
HOUSTON COUNTY AIRPORT AND LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8785 3663 8785 3663 8780 3629 8755
      3624 8795 3631 8796 3635 8798 3637 8800
      3643 8805 3649 8806 3652 8804 3656 8803
      3666 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 245DEG 26KT 3632 8790

31

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