Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
301 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION FROM ROBERTSON DOWN THROUGH SUMNER...WILSON AND DE KALB
COUNTIES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
CDT. SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY EASTWARD NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE EXITING MID STATE WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS PUSHING
CONVECTION EASTWARD TOWARD PLATEAU.

MID STATE WELL WITHIN WARM SECTOR WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. 40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PUMPING
UP AGAINST LINE OF CONVECTION IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS 40 KNOT MID
LEVEL JET DIVES DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING STRONG DYNAMICS
AND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. AS SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST THIS MORNING
LOW LEVEL JET RELAXES AND THINK MID STATE LOOKING AT MORE OF A
SCATTERED VARIETY OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH TEMPS
GETTING UP INTO THE MIDDLE 80S MANY LOCATIONS. OTHER THAN
AFTERNOON HEATING HARD PRESSED TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
TRIGGER FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THREAT DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER NORTHEAST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER. ON THURSDAY FRONTAL
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO HAVE RAMPED UP POPS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT BY
SUNDAY A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR
AREA AS UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. HAVE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS STAY REASONABLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN PRECIPITATION AREAS, OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  66  87  57  77 /  40  20  60  50  10
CLARKSVILLE    85  66  82  55  74 /  30  30  60  40  10
CROSSVILLE     77  63  81  58  72 /  40  30  50  60  10
COLUMBIA       86  64  85  57  76 /  30  20  50  50  10
LAWRENCEBURG   85  64  85  58  77 /  30  20  50  50  10
WAVERLY        85  65  83  55  75 /  30  20  60  40   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......01/BOYD
AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1126 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-110945-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
1126 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE UNTIL 6 AM CDT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT MAY BE
SEVERE...AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED...INCLUDING ANY OCCURRENCES OF WIND
DAMAGE OR HAIL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
355 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE GREEN HILL        36.25N  86.56W
05/11/2016  M3.08 INCH       WILSON             TN   NWS OFFICE

            RAINFALL MEASURED FROM 11PM THROUGH 355AM

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1600479

SHAMBURGER

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