Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1201 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN
AT THIS TIME. STORMS REMAIN WELL BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LIMITS. FOR
THE MOST PART...THE MID STATE IS NOW UNDER JUST A MARGINAL RISK
EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SE WHERE A SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES TO RESIDE.
INSTABILITIES SHOULD CLIMB A BIT MORE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND
THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IS STILL IN PLAY
EAST OF I-65. HOWEVER...STRONG LINEAR FORCING DOES NOT REALLY COME
INTO PLAY UNTIL AFTER THE INSTABILITY AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST.

SO...OVERALL...FCST IS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE. NO MENTION OF STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS IN THE GRIDS SO NO GRID MOD NEEDED. WILL GO AHEAD
AND RESEND THE ZONES...ANYHOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-STATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THE BALANCE
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT AS COLD AIR SETTLES IN. CIGS EXPECTED TO BOUNCE
AROUND LARGELY IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE
BRIEFLY LOWER. VSBYS EXPECTED TO DROP MAINLY WITH HEAVIER PRECIP.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........07
LONG TERM..................XXI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1035 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-021115-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
1035 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TODAY...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU BEFORE ENDING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
113 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

TNZ033-012000-
OVERTON TN-
113 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OVERTON COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM
CST...

AT 112 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LIVINGSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIVINGSTON...RICKMAN AND STANDING STONE STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3653 8526 3651 8522 3650 8519 3636 8512
      3629 8512 3623 8539 3623 8541 3637 8550
      3640 8550 3653 8529 3654 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 240DEG 49KT 3635 8538

07