Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
231 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The forecast wont change too much each day as an upper high slowly
moves eastward towards the Atlantic and gets replaced by another
upper high/ridging next week. Subtle shortwave disturbances
within the upper flow combined with diurnal support will be enough
for some shower and thunderstorm activity through the duration of
the forecast. Temperatures look to remain very consistent through
the end of next week with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s and
lows in the low to mid 70s.

For the short term through Sunday, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will mainly be during the afternoon hours, but there
will still be chances for lingering showers to persist into the
evening. With weak upper level shear thanks to the upper closed
high, thunderstorms will be mainly pulse type and not move too
quickly. So if heavier showers and thunderstorms develop, slow
movement may bring some flood risks to impacted areas. Also, with
some enhanced areas of MUCAPE over the mid state during the
afternoon hours, some gusty winds will be possible with the higher
topped convection. Otherwise, just expecting typical isolated late
summer afternoon convection through the weekend.

After Sunday, the upper closed high begins to merge with the
approaching ridge, and keeps high pressure aloft through next
week. Another closed upper high will develop Tuesday, but doesnt
look to progress eastward like the previous high. Instead, the
ridge over the Plains will keep us in more of a northwesterly flow
pattern by late Wednesday. Again with subtle shortwaves embedded
within the upper flow, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms
are expected each day next week. By Friday, the ridge axis looks
to slide across the MS River Valley and may give us a dry weekend
across the mid state. For now have Friday and Friday night mainly
dry with a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms on the
Plateau.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Convective temps running just a few degrees above current temps
at this hour. Should see some isol to sct development aft 21z or
so. Otw, higher pressure remains stacked to our east. Convective
activity that does develop will move very slowly northward. Light
fog possible late tonight as current tover values are slightly
negative.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  93  73  93  73 /  20  30  20  20  20
Clarksville    73  91  73  91  72 /  20  30  20  20  20
Crossville     69  89  69  87  68 /  20  30  10  40  20
Columbia       72  91  72  91  72 /  20  40  10  20  20
Lawrenceburg   72  90  71  90  71 /  20  40  10  20  10
Waverly        72  90  73  90  72 /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
513 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-271015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
513 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN MAINLY FOG-PRONE AREAS THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 9 AM. MAKE SURE TO GIVE YOURSELF EXTRA TIME
ON YOUR COMMUTE AND USE YOUR LOW BEAMS. PATCHY FOG MEANS
VISIBILITY CAN DROP QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.