River Flood Advisory 27, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Will opt to go ahead and expand the flash flood watch westward by
adding Stewart and Montgomery counties. This will fill in the
graphic with the KY offices. Furthermore, developing thunderstorm
complex over the MO bootheel, NE ARK, and far northwestern TN is
continuing to maintain its strength. Latest HRRR shows this
activity weakening. However, NAM and GFS solutions bring a good
half inch across our northwestern CWA after 7 PM this evening. 850
mb flow to weaken slightly overnight but PVA is lated to increase.
Also, will take a closer look at pops overnight. The current 40
pop may need to be increased. Update and the expanded watch will
be issued shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Moist and unstable airmass in place through the 1st half of the
taf pd. A series of upper level impulses will interact with the
instability and produce strong to potentially severe tstms through
around 10z. stronger wind gusts will be possible with the tstms.
Otw, aft 09z we will see our lower level wind flow become more
northwesterly as a sfc high builds southward from the upper
midwest. This will act to bring lower dewpoints and less
convective energy to the area. Despite the continuation of a few
upper level impulses, most of the convective activity should be
south of the taf sites during the latter portions of the taf pd.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight FOR Clay-Cumberland-
De Kalb-Fentress-Jackson-Macon-Montgomery-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-
Robertson-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-White-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......05
AVIATION........21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
152 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

TNZ007>011-028>034-064>066-091000-
ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-
152 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING ONE...UP TO LOCALLY THREE
INCHES...OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100'S THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TNZ005-006-023>027-056>063-075-077>080-093>095-091000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-
PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-
BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
152 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100'S THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >=1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

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