Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1138 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

At update time, we're still waiting for a line of showers and
thunderstorms oriented west to east across southern KY to push
into northern counties of Middle Tennessee. These storms have had
a history of producing damaging straight line winds and even one
cell has had a very impressive supercell structure and strong
rotation associated with it. This line will press south and
southeastward over the next couple of hours and while the severe
weather parameters are not as impressive over the mid-state
(instability waning as the sun goes down and weaker bulk shear
values), we still could see a couple of severe thunderstorm
warnings. The main threat will still be damaging straight line
winds for our northeast counties for the next couple of hours.

Made some updates a little while ago which went to increasing
PoPs, otherwise the current forecast is on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Surface front is closing in on Middle Tennessee from
the north as a pre-frontal band of convection penetrates deeper
into the mid state. The most widespread activity is occurring east
of Nashville and along the Cumberland Plateau, and the HRRR shows
weakening activity lingering there well into the night. Also
expect some MVFR fog at CKV and CSV later tonight and tomorrow
morning. FROPA will occur after 12Z, prompting a wind shift to the
WNW and also VFR cigs for much of the day.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1052 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-250400-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
1052 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

27

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1026 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

TNZ009>011-031>034-240415-
OVERTON TN-MACON TN-PICKETT TN-FENTRESS TN-PUTNAM TN-CLAY TN-
JACKSON TN-
1026 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAY...PICKETT...FENTRESS...
NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM...OVERTON...EASTERN MACON AND JACKSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1026 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR RED BOILING SPRINGS TO NEAR
LIVINGSTON TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT PISGAH. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...CELINA...GAINESBORO...BYRDSTOWN...ALGOOD...
RED BOILING SPRINGS...ALLARDT...RICKMAN...WOLF RIVER DOCK...
STANDING STONE STATE PARK...WHITLEYVILLE...CRAWFORD...MOSS...
PALL MALL...DALE HOLLOW LAKE...GRIMSLEY...
PICKETT STATE PARK AND CLARKRANGE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

LAT...LON 3637 8470 3638 8472 3634 8474 3633 8477
      3630 8480 3628 8488 3621 8491 3615 8491
      3615 8500 3617 8503 3613 8511 3631 8582
      3634 8584 3641 8583 3642 8589 3663 8602
      3661 8550 3663 8523 3660 8479 3640 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 317DEG 24KT 3657 8590 3643 8537 3657 8486

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CARTHAGE                36.26N  85.94W
06/24/2016                   SMITH              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN CARTHAGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1600638

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1226 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

TNZ026-027-059-240615-
CHEATHAM TN-DAVIDSON TN-WILLIAMSON TN-
1226 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON...SOUTHEASTERN CHEATHAM
AND NORTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1226 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF BELLE MEADE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ASHLAND
CITY... MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRANKLIN...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...BRENTWOOD...LA VERGNE...
NOLENSVILLE...FOREST HILLS...OAK HILL...BELLE MEADE...
KINGSTON SPRINGS...LAKEWOOD...PEGRAM...BELLEVUE...FAIRVIEW...
ANTIOCH...BERRY HILL...BELLS BEND...PERCY PRIEST LAKE...
LEIPERS FORK AND NATCHEZ TRACE AT HIGHWAY 96.

LAT...LON 3606 8656 3604 8656 3601 8661 3598 8661
      3597 8662 3595 8662 3587 8711 3612 8717
      3617 8717 3618 8715 3619 8716 3627 8666
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 341DEG 27KT 3619 8694

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1229 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

TNZ008-009-028>033-062>064-240630-
CANNON TN-TROUSDALE TN-DE KALB TN-OVERTON TN-MACON TN-SMITH TN-
SUMNER TN-WILSON TN-PUTNAM TN-RUTHERFORD TN-JACKSON TN-
1229 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SMITH...NORTHEASTERN
RUTHERFORD...DE KALB...SOUTHEASTERN SUMNER...CANNON...TROUSDALE...
NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM...WEST CENTRAL OVERTON...WILSON...SOUTHERN MACON
AND JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 1229 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES
SOUTH OF LEBANON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
RESULTING IN SMALL BRANCHES BEING BROKEN OFF OR SMALL TREES BEING
DOWNED...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON
AREA ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALLATIN...LEBANON...SMITHVILLE...WOODBURY...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...
HARTSVILLE...MOUNT JULIET...WATERTOWN...BAXTER...GORDONSVILLE...
BELINDA CITY...WALTERHILL...RURAL HILL...HICKMAN...SOUTH CARTHAGE...
ALEXANDRIA...DOWELLTOWN...LIBERTY AND AUBURNTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3642 8552 3641 8550 3642 8549 3641 8534
      3567 8609 3610 8651 3649 8642
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 316DEG 26KT 3611 8637

31