Special Weather Statement, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
514 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 142 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Upper trough axis continues to move toward the forecast area with
strongest push of large scale motion for ascent occurring this
afternoon over our forecast area just ahead of the trough axis. A
few lightning strikes have been showing up across the area with
very weak elevated instability moving overhead. Latest surface
analysis shows center of the low over south central Nebraska and
this continues to quickly move northeast. A line of weak thunderstorms
continues to form along the dry slot extending south into central
Kansas. As the dry slot spreads east/northeast toward our CWA, we
should be loosing our daytime heating and any storms that did
fire should continue to diminish. Near-term CAM's support this and
do indicate some heavier QPF values spreading across northeast
Nebraska through 03Z where strongest large scale lift will reside
as the upper trough continues into the eastern Dakotas. Recent
radar mosaics indicate some stronger storms moving northeast
across central Nebraska and dropping some small hail so will need
to keep an eye on any of that reaching our northwestern counties. Rain
will quickly diminish from west to east through the evening hours
as the system and forcing mechanisms continues to rotate
northeast. Portions of our far northern Nebraska counties could
see some trailing pcpn overnight as the entire system moves into
the eastern Dakotas.

By Monday evening, the system will begin to drop south/southeast
bringing colder Canadian air along with it in addition to gusty
northwest winds. This combination will create quite blustery
conditions that will persist from Wed into Thursday. Our far
northern counties could see some light precipitation before the
system completely exits the area Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 142 PM CST Sun
Nov 27 2016

The region will remain in broad west/northwest flow through the
extended which should keep temperatures overall slightly below
normal for this time of the year. No precipitation is in the
forecast until possibly late Saturday if the EC is right. The GFS
varies greatly from this solution so due to uncertainty, will keep
the forecast dry for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 510 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

IFR cigs are expected for the next couple hours at the TAF sites
along with some continued scattered showers, but then a rapid
improvement is expected between 03-05Z at all 3 sites with VFR
conditions developing. The gusty south winds are expected to
continue overnight becoming southwest and west through the day on
Monday. Toward the end of the period we will see a SCT-BKN mid
level deck move southeast into all the TAF sites with some MVFR
possible just after this TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Boustead

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
418 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2016

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-281230-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
418 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
MAYBE SMALL HAIL. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

FOBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
511 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2016

NEZ016-030-031-042-272345-
ANTELOPE NE-PLATTE NE-BOONE NE-MADISON NE-
511 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PLATTE...
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN BOONE AND SOUTHEASTERN ANTELOPE
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CST...

AT 510 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTH OF ALBION...OR 37 MILES WEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALBION...NEWMAN GROVE AND THE HIGHWAY 14 AND 56 JUNCTION.

LAT...LON 4160 9819 4200 9789 4184 9759 4151 9798
      4151 9804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 215DEG 35KT 4161 9804

FOBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
520 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2016

NEZ050-065-280000-
SEWARD NE-BUTLER NE-
520 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BUTLER AND NORTHWESTERN
SEWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CST...

AT 519 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTH OF WACO...OR 7 MILES EAST OF YORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAVID CITY...UTICA...RISING CITY...BRAINARD...STAPLEHURST...DWIGHT...
ULYSSES...GARRISON AND SURPRISE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 92 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 412 AND 428.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA NEAR MILE MARKER 366.

LAT...LON 4132 9721 4117 9692 4079 9736 4112 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 216DEG 47KT 4083 9746

FOBERT

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