Special Weather Statement, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
330 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

Early afternoon water vapor imagery reveals a broad long-wave
trough from the Pacific Coast to just east of the Mississippi
Valley with an associated closed low over eastern Montana. An
embedded short-wave trough is in the process of ejecting northeast
across the central Plains this afternoon with this feature
continuing northeast in the upper Mississippi Valley by
12z/Wednesday. In the low levels, mesoanalysis at 19z placed a
cold front from an occluded surface low over northwest ND
southeast through central Nebraska to a secondary low over
central Kansas. A warm front --arising from differential diabatic
heating-- was located over northeast Kansas, gradually developing
north toward the Nebraska border.

Scattered showers and storms and widespread clouds have limited
daytime heating thus far across much of the forecast area.
However, cloud breaks over portions of north-central and northeast
Kansas, in concert with a gradually moistening boundary layer,
will yield a destabilizing air mass through the remainder of the
afternoon across southeast Nebraska. Forcing for ascent associated
with the above-mentioned short-wave trough is expected to foster
an increase in thunderstorms this afternoon into evening, along
and ahead of the cold front which will be edging east. The most
favorable overlap of modest instability and moderately strong
vertical shear will reside across southeast Nebraska where the
highest probability of a few severe storms will exist. Locally
heavy rainfall will also be a concern, though it does appear that
the cold front will begin to accelerate east by evening,
mitigating a potentially more widespread flash flood threat.

Showers and storms should diminish from west to east tonight with
the passage of the surface front with areas of fog possible toward
sunrise Wednesday. On Wednesday, the surface front will stall over
or just to the south of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa as a
lee cyclone deepens over the central High Plains. It currently
appears that conditions will remain dry through the daylight
hours, though low-level warm advection will begin to strengthen
later in the afternoon. This warm advection will continue to
intensify Wednesday night in response to a strengthening LLJ
forming ahead of an amplifying short-wave emerging into the
central High Plains. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms
appears to be south of I-80.

On Thursday, the central High Plains short-wave trough will eject
northeast through the mid Missouri Valley in tandem with a
deepening surface low which will will track from western KS at 12z
to north-central IA by Thursday evening. Forecast soundings from
within the warm sector over southeast Nebraska Thursday afternoon
indicate modest instability and vertically veering wind profiles
with more than ample deep-layer shear for a few severe storms. A
strong cold front will accelerate southeast through the area
with the passage of the surface low late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. Low temperatures Thursday night could approach
freezing over western portions of northeast NE where clouds will
clear the soonest. Dry and cooler conditions are expected on
Friday as surface high pressure builds into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

Potential for more widespread freezing temperatures will exist
Friday night into Saturday morning owing to clear skies and the
proximity of the surface ridge axis. By next weekend, 12z medium-
range guidance suggests the development of quasi-zonal flow aloft
which will yield downslope warming in the low levels. There is
some indication in these data that a weak mid-level impulse will
progress through the central Plains with a slight chance of
showers Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

MVFR conditions at KOFK, but VFR at KOMA, and KLNK. Main forecast
problems will be timing of thunderstorms into and out of the
forecast points as a cold front moves in from the west. Best
threat at KOFK will be 20-24z, at KLNK 21-01z, and KOMA 22-02z.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...DeWald

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
447 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-067-068-051200-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-CASS-OTOE-
447 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG DURING THIS TIME. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THIS EVENING AS WELL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 10 PM OR
SO, AND END ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY MORNING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
ON SATURDAY MORNING...FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...AND NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT, BUT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER IF ANYTHING
DEVELOPS.

NEZ065-066-078-088>093-051200-
SEWARD-LANCASTER-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-
RICHARDSON-
447 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREAS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS, BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST BY 10
PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY STILL BE NEEDED YET THIS EVENING.

DEWALD

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