Special Weather Statement, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
658 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Conditions are primed in some areas for additional flash flooding
tonight, primarily for those areas that received from 1 to 5
inches of rain last night in slow moving thunderstorms. Thus a
flash flood watch was issued for portions of southeast NE and
southwest IA where flash flood guidance was lowered as a result.

Environmentally, things are not that different from last night.
The atmosphere remains tropically moist being fed by a moist water
vapor plume that can be traced to the western coast of Mexico. PW
values this morning were around 1.8", which climatologically is
right at the maximum moving average for this time of year. This
moisture is also 1-2 standard deviations above normal based on
NAEFS climatological means, thus we have a lot of water to work
with. The upper low across the central Rockies will continue to
very slowly fill then lift across the plains through Tuesday. The
main westerlies are well north of the region, thus storm motions
are quite slow, only 10-15 mph at times. Due to the abundant
moisture, rainfall rates could easily reach 1-2" per hour. Storms
have begun to fire with the heat of the day with surface based
CAPE ranging 2000-3500 J/kg. Effective shear is very marginal
though, generally less than 20 knots. While freezing levels around
13300 could be conducive for hail, wet bulb zero levels are
extremely high around 12650. With the lack of higher storm scale
rotation and very marginal mid level lapse rates, hail will be a
struggle, but there does appear some wet microburst potential for
any storms that can develop a cold pool.

The wet pattern continues into Tuesday with conditions nearly
identical, but perhaps more coverage of storms as the upper trough
axis remains in place across the region, then slowly drifts south
of the area by early Wednesday. Will maintain likely Pops
along/south of I80 late tonight into Tuesday, then end precip from
north to south Wednesday morning, then go dry and mild for
Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Dry conditions continue Friday with an upper ridge remaining in
place across the central US, but rain chances return for the
holiday weekend as the ridge shifts east, and a series of upper
level weather disturbances move into the area Saturday and Sunday,
along with a cold front on Labor Day.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 636 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Intermittant showers and thunderstorms expected at KLNK/KOMA and
also possible at KOFK this evening with favorable deep moisture in
place/theta-e advection in the area through 06z. VFR cigs outside
of showers/thunderstorms...however with precipitation...conditions
may range from vfr to LIFR/MVFR with heavy rain reducing
visibilities. Some gusty winds possible; generally 30kts or less
in the vicinity of storms. Coverage uncertain later tonight, thus
mention vcsh/shra. Favorable stormy pattern continues Tuesdayand
again due to low confidence in coverage left as vcts

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for NEZ068-078-
     088>093.

IA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for IAZ090-091.

&&

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Zapotocny

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
435 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

IAZ090-091-NEZ068-078-088>093-301145-
FREMONT-PAGE-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-
RICHARDSON-
435 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE SOME SPOTS
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THOSE
LOCATIONS RECEIVE MORE RAIN...FLOODING COULD DEVELOP.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-
050>053-065>067-301145-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-KNOX-CEDAR-
THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-
PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-
SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-
435 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.

THERE WILL BE A 20 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
523 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

NEZ066-068-292245-
LANCASTER NE-OTOE NE-
523 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OTOE AND
SOUTHEASTERN LANCASTER COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 523 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FIRTH...OR 18 MILES SOUTH OF LINCOLN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKMAN...BENNET...FIRTH...PALMYRA...PANAMA...
WAGON TRAIN STATE RECREATION AREA AND STAGECOACH STATE RECREATION
AREA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 2 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 469 AND 475.

LAT...LON 4053 9647 4053 9667 4079 9655 4071 9637
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 205DEG 10KT 4057 9657

MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
558 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

NEZ031-032-042-043-292330-
COLFAX NE-PLATTE NE-STANTON NE-MADISON NE-
558 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN STANTON...
NORTHEASTERN PLATTE...SOUTHEASTERN MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN COLFAX
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 558 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTH OF LEIGH...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLARKSON...LEIGH...CRESTON AND MAPLE CREEK RECREATION AREA.

LAT...LON 4182 9711 4158 9712 4157 9736 4182 9743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 175DEG 11KT 4164 9726

MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
707 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

IAZ055-069-079-090-NEZ044-045-051>053-067-068-300100-
FREMONT IA-MILLS IA-HARRISON IA-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-DODGE NE-DOUGLAS NE-
CASS NE-OTOE NE-WASHINGTON NE-SAUNDERS NE-SARPY NE-
707 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FREMONT...
SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON...SOUTHWESTERN MILLS...SOUTHWESTERN
POTTAWATTAMIE...DOUGLAS...SOUTHEASTERN DODGE...CASS...WASHINGTON...
SARPY...EAST CENTRAL SAUNDERS AND NORTH CENTRAL OTOE COUNTIES UNTIL
800 PM CDT...

AT 705 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF ARLINGTON TO NEAR AVOCA.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OMAHA...SOUTHWESTERN COUNCIL BLUFFS...BELLEVUE...FREMONT...
PAPILLION...LA VISTA...BLAIR...PLATTSMOUTH...RALSTON...GRETNA...
VALLEY...SPRINGFIELD...ARLINGTON...LOUISVILLE...WEEPING WATER...
FORT CALHOUN...WATERLOO...MURRAY...CEDAR CREEK AND KENNARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4166 9607 4081 9576 4072 9616 4152 9649
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 244DEG 24KT 4147 9641 4078 9608

MILLER