Special Weather Statement, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
339 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO OPEN AND BECOME A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI/WESTERN IOWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. A SMALL EMBEDDED VORT MAX
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEN ON
SATELLITE LOOPS HAS INITIATED SCATTERED TSTMS OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL. OTHER
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION AND AGAIN...SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK AND DESPITE MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000-1500J/KG. EXPECTING
QUICK UPDRAFTS THAT PRODUCE SMALL HAIL BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF OUR AREA BY
MORNING...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. ANOTHER VORT
LOBE WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING GIVING THE REGION
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR
AN EWD MOVING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DRIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK WAVE
WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPS FLIRT WITH -3C IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND SO WILL BE WATCHING SATURDAY MORNING
LOWS CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGN OF FREEZING SFC TEMPS. A 1024MB SFC
HIGH WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHEN WE HAVE COOL HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SET UP AROUND THE HIGH BY LATE SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL
WAVES ARE FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH INCREASING ZONAL FLOW. WILL
CARRY LOW CONFIDENCE POPS INTO DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL 3 TAF SITES AT
VARIOUS TIMES. THE SCT NATURE TO THE TSRA WILL CREATE ISSUES FOR
TIMING...BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER IN ALL 3 SITES
BUT TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. OTHERWISE SCT TO BKN CU IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THIS MAY BE CLOSE TO
THE MVFR RANGE. PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA THIS THIS EVNG WITH
CONDS DRY THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY TUE MRNG
WITH SOME FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
539 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-101245-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
539 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOBERT

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