Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Omaha, NE

601 
WWUS53 KOAX 250434
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1134 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

NEC067-095-133-250445-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-160525T0445Z/
JEFFERSON NE-GAGE NE-PAWNEE NE-
1134 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHERN GAGE AND WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES...

AT 1133 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ODELL...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF BEATRICE...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEATRICE...WYMORE...BLUE SPRINGS...ODELL...DILLER...BARNESTON...
LIBERTY...LEWISTON...STEELE CITY...VIRGINIA...HARBINE...
CUB CREEK RECREATIONAL AREA...
ROCK CREEK STATION STATE HISTORICAL PARK AND ROCKFORD STATE
RECREATION AREA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 136 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 160 AND 188.
 HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 1 AND 22.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4001 9707 4028 9707 4028 9646 4026 9646
      4026 9636 4001 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 0433Z 194DEG 34KT 4010 9675 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MEAD

481 
WWUS53 KOAX 250441
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1141 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

NEC067-095-133-250451-
/O.EXP.KOAX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-160525T0445Z/
JEFFERSON NE-GAGE NE-PAWNEE NE-
1141 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHERN
GAGE AND WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4001 9707 4028 9707 4028 9646 4026 9646
      4026 9636 4001 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 181DEG 55KT 4010 9675 

$$

MEAD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
625 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Latest water vapor imagery and RAP 500mb analysis show weak
shortwave ridging overhead this afternoon behind a departing complex
now over Missouri. Southwesterly flow continues with a few
embedded weak shortwaves of interest. The first is over northeast
Colorado with another showing up across western Kansas where a few
lightning strikes have been noted.

Afternoon surface analysis shows area of low pressure over southeast
Colorado with very little in the way pressure differences across all
of Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Boundary layer moisture remains in
place with surface dewpoints fluctuating this afternoon and falling
slightly into the upper 50s across our western counties where
surface winds turned more southwesterly along a weak boundary.

Forecaster uncertainty remains high as a few waves of convection are
forecast to drift through the area as early as this evening. With
the lack of a strong forcing mechanism late this afternoon into this
evening, we continue to question some of the CAM solutions on
developing storms over the area before dark. It seems more likely
that storms that initiate across western Nebraska and parts of
Kansas would spread east/northeast across the forecast area
overnight tonight and continue into Wednesday morning. This being
said, with a primed and unstable airmass in place, cannot rule
anything out and so will continue monitor any convective
developments closely. Thunderstorms that roll through overnight
should continue into Wednesday morning and exit by afternoon.

The cycle continues as several embedded shortwaves drive through
southwesterly flow aloft and interact with several boundaries left
over from previous convection. A stronger synoptic front will
extend northeast from lee cyclone over western Kansas into
southeast Nebraska on Thursday which will be the focus for strong
thunderstorms Thursday and again on Friday. As has been the case
in the past couple days, high moisture content could lead to very
heavy rain in the stronger convection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

By Friday night, a shortwave trough is forecast to extend across
western Nebraska and Kansas and slide northeast into the Missouri
River Valley by 00Z Sunday. Lee surface cyclone will also slide
east/northeast across Kansas Friday through Saturday with an
eastward extending warm front that will continue to be the
primary focus for thunderstorm development.

Shortwave ridging is expected over the area by mid day Sunday with
persistent southwesterly upper level flow into next week. Sunday
looks like our best shot at a dry forecast period with pops entering
into the picture again Sunday night as a series of shortwaves roll
northeast through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Recent trends in visible satellite imagery indicate an agitated
cumulus field from west of KLNK and KBIE to near KAUH. Latest
surface observations indicate generally light winds with the best
low-level convergence nearer to the Platte river. The upshot is
that we are uncertain whether storms will arise from this
convection. The better potential appears to be after 03 or 04z
owing to increased moisture flux and isentropic ascent along the
strengthening low-level jet. As such, TEMPO groups for
thunderstorms have been included beginning at 04z for KLNK, 05z at
KOFK and 06z at KOMA. Thunderstorm activity will likely linger in
the vicinity of all TAF sites overnight. We have maintained
prevailing VFR conditions with MVFR ceilings and visibilities
around the thunderstorms.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Mead

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-251045-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
334 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOODING.
THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AND SOME FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR...AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.