Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
654 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

The 12z upper-air analysis revealed a mid to upper-level low
over Saskatchewan with a trailing trough across the Interior
West. These data and current water vapor imagery suggest the
presence of a weak perturbation tracking across South Dakota and
Nebraska, ahead of the primary, western U.S. trough. At the
surface, a cold front stretched from eastern South Dakota to
central Nebraska as of 20z, with an outflow boundary gradually
becoming poorer defined as it lifts north through eastern Nebraska
and western Iowa.

Thunderstorms are beginning to increase in both coverage and
intensity ahead of the cold front from northeast Nebraska into
southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa owing to persistent
low-level warm advection and increasing height falls attendant to
the NE/SD disturbance mentioned above. This activity is likely
still elevated, and rooted above a cap situated at the base of an
elevated-mixed layer. However with time, continued heating of the
warm sector coupled with low-level uplift along the front should
foster surface-based storms amidst an environment characterized by
mlCAPE of 2000-3000+ j/kg and 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear.
As such, isolated severe storms are possible as highlighted by the
current day 1 convective outlook from the SPC. While locally
damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall appear to be the primary
hazards, a conditional threat for large hail and possibly a brief
tornado exists, contingent on the evolution of supercell storm
modes.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely persist tonight both along
and in the wake of the surface cold front as it continues
southeast across the area. While localized flooding is possible,
uncertainty in specifically where the band of heaviest rain will
set up coupled with relatively dry antecedent conditions precludes
us from considering a flash flood watch at this juncture.

Some of these showers and storms could linger into Friday,
especially across portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa. We will see a slightly cooler and perhaps a bit drier air
mass filter into the area behind the cold front with highs on
Friday in the lower to mid 80s.

This weekend, we will remain in northwest flow aloft with a
surface ridge axis gradually building through the lower Missouri
Valley. This pattern should yield dry conditions with high
temperatures in the mid 80s and cooler overnight lows (compared to
recent nights) in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

Latest medium-range guidance suggests that a quasi-zonal belt of
polar westerlies will reside along the U.S.-Canadian border
through early next week with some amplification to the pattern by
the middle to latter part of the week. It appears that
precipitation chances will remain low through the extended period
with highs generally in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

Rather complicated fcst with TSRA spread across the region...thus
confidence is quite low. At any rate...latest trends in addition
to model guidance suggest a low probability of anymore convection
making a direct hit at KOFK the rest of this evening.
However...rogue TSRA outflow may well spark something over NERN
Neb. For now will just go with VCTS this evening until situation
becomes a bit more clear. As for KOMA/KLNK...radar trends indicate
a line forming just to the west of both terminals. In
addition...another complex over n-cntrl KS was making a push to
the NE. The bottom line is that occasional convection is likely at
both TAF site during the evening hours. TSRA activity should be
exiting EWD sometime after midnight.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ051>053-066>068-
     078-088>093.

IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ056-069-079-080-
     090-091.

&&

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...DEE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
824 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

NEZ065-066-078-120200-
SEWARD NE-LANCASTER NE-SALINE NE-
824 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEWARD...
NORTHEASTERN SALINE AND SOUTHWESTERN LANCASTER COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

AT 824 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PLEASANT DALE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LINCOLN... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINCOLN...PLEASANT DALE...ROCA...DENTON...CONESTOGA STATE RECREATION
AREA...PAWNEE STATE RECREATION AREA AND WALNUT CREEK RECREATION AREA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 2 IN NEBRASKA NEAR MILE MARKER 466.
 HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 51 AND 71...AND NEAR
MILEMARKER 77.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 388 AND 405.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4062 9693 4083 9698 4092 9663 4067 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 257DEG 32KT 4071 9685

MEAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
911 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

IAZ090-NEZ044-051>053-065>068-089>092-120300-
FREMONT IA-NEMAHA NE-DODGE NE-DOUGLAS NE-JOHNSON NE-CASS NE-
SEWARD NE-GAGE NE-LANCASTER NE-PAWNEE NE-OTOE NE-SAUNDERS NE-
SARPY NE-
911 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FREMONT...
SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...SOUTHEASTERN DODGE...CASS...EAST CENTRAL
SEWARD...WEST CENTRAL NEMAHA...NORTHEASTERN GAGE...NORTH CENTRAL
PAWNEE...JOHNSON...WESTERN SARPY...EASTERN SAUNDERS...OTOE AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 909 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. THESE WERE MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINCOLN...NEBRASKA CITY...WAHOO...GRETNA...WAVERLY...ASHLAND...
SYRACUSE...TECUMSEH...HICKMAN...SPRINGFIELD...YUTAN...LOUISVILLE...
WEEPING WATER...BENNET...ELMWOOD...FIRTH...MEAD...GREENWOOD...
PALMYRA AND STERLING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4142 9654 4081 9572 4023 9626 4083 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 208DEG 37KT 4095 9678 4043 9620

MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
927 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

IAZ055-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ034-044-045-051>053-067-068-120315-
PAGE IA-MILLS IA-HARRISON IA-MONTGOMERY IA-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-
FREMONT IA-DODGE NE-DOUGLAS NE-OTOE NE-SAUNDERS NE-SARPY NE-CASS NE-
WASHINGTON NE-BURT NE-
927 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...
NORTHERN FREMONT...NORTHWESTERN PAGE...WESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE...
MILLS...SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON...EASTERN CASS...SOUTHEASTERN DODGE...
SOUTHEASTERN BURT...DOUGLAS...WASHINGTON...SARPY...NORTHEASTERN
SAUNDERS AND NORTHEASTERN OTOE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 926 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CEDAR BLUFFS TO NEAR SIDNEY. MOVEMENT WAS
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OMAHA...COUNCIL BLUFFS...BELLEVUE...FREMONT...PAPILLION...LA VISTA...
BLAIR...PLATTSMOUTH...RALSTON...RED OAK...GLENWOOD...GRETNA...
MISSOURI VALLEY...VALLEY...TEKAMAH...SPRINGFIELD...ARLINGTON...
YUTAN...MALVERN AND SIDNEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...AND SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4181 9623 4095 9516 4066 9570 4145 9669
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 244DEG 32KT 4140 9665 4077 9566

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
935 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE GRETNA            41.16N 96.19W
08/11/2016  M3.11 INCH       SARPY              NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

CZAPOTOC

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