Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
628 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Heat and humidity are making for rather sultry condition across
the CWA this afternoon. Surface obs were showing dew point temps
in the low/mid 70s extending along an inverted surface trof from
eastern Kansas into eastern South Dakota.

Late afternoon/Tonight...HIRES models indicate convection blooming
later this afternoon along axis of boundary layer moisture
convergence/theta-e advection...and steep mid-level lapse rates. CU
already showing up on satellite...corresponding with anticipated
thunder.  At this point...per the latest RAP13...combination of
extreme instability/effective shear/moisture rich environmental for
potential severe storms are focused over central/eastern South
Dakota. However...cannot discount a few severe storms and generous
precipitation over the northern CWA mainly before midnight.

Dry and hot conditions continue then Saturday and Sunday before the
next round of precipitation Sunday evening. Both ECM/GFS prog a
surface cold front associated with a potent vort max along the
U.S./Can border...dashing through the Dakotas toward the central
plains. Once again...given that a moisture rich environment will
be in place...the potential for generous rainfall over portions
of the CWA are quite favorable given both the ECM/GFS slow down
brunt of frontogenetic forcing through late Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

More agreeable conditions are progged through the extended
periods thanks to relatively cool surface high pressure enveloping
the central plains with high temps generally in the mid 80s to
around 90 Tuesday through Thursday. Dry as well heading into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Area is expected to be on the edge of convective activity to the
west and north. KOFK may have a chance of a storm through 06z but
expect KOMA and KLNK to remain outside any convection. VFR
conditions should prevail through the period outside of
convection.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-069-079-
     090.

&&

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Fobert

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
348 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

IAZ043-055-069-079-090-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093-181100-
MONONA-HARRISON-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-FREMONT-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-
ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-
COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-
LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-
RICHARDSON-
348 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES...THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST TO LAST INTO SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE LOW 100S ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

IAZ056-080-091-181100-
SHELBY-MONTGOMERY-PAGE-
348 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST TO LAST INTO SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE LOW 100S ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
847 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

NEZ011-012-180215-
KNOX NE-CEDAR NE-
847 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CEDAR AND KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL 915
PM CDT...

AT 843 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE STORMS WAS APPROACHING THE
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BORDER WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. LISTEN
FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YANKTON...HARTINGTON...CREIGHTON...BLOOMFIELD...WAUSA...VERDIGRE...
COLERIDGE...NIOBRARA...SANTEE...WYNOT...CROFTON...PLEASANT VALLEY...
FORDYCE...ST. HELENA...CENTER...WINNETOON...MAGNET...BAZILE MILLS...
OBERT AND THE HIGHWAY 14 AND 59 JUNCTION.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 81 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 186 AND 215.
 HIGHWAY 20 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 392 AND 398.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4284 9815 4277 9805 4276 9800 4279 9792
      4287 9785 4284 9770 4286 9750 4285 9745
      4287 9742 4287 9731 4285 9722 4281 9721
      4277 9713 4276 9701 4244 9702 4246 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 097DEG 14KT 4293 9631 4320 9788

FOBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
911 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

IAZ043-NEZ011-012-015>018-180300-
MONONA IA-ANTELOPE NE-KNOX NE-CEDAR NE-PIERCE NE-THURSTON NE-
WAYNE NE-
911 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MONONA...CEDAR...
ANTELOPE...KNOX...THURSTON...WAYNE AND PIERCE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM
CDT...

AT 908 PM CDT...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WINDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN EASTERN KNOX AND CEDAR COUNTIES FROM THE OUTFLOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH 945 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAYNE...PIERCE...NELIGH...HARTINGTON...WAKEFIELD...PLAINVIEW...
CREIGHTON...BLOOMFIELD...PENDER...RANDOLPH...EMERSON...OSMOND...
WALTHILL...WINNEBAGO...WHITING...WAUSA...VERDIGRE...COLERIDGE...
WINSIDE AND CLEARWATER.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 275 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 28 AND 41.
 HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 156 AND 171.
 HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 162 AND 172.
 HIGHWAY 81 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 163 AND 209.
 HIGHWAY 20 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 332 AND 398.
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 118 AND 125.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4286 9828 4284 9815 4276 9802 4283 9788
      4276 9701 4227 9702 4228 9636 4221 9635
      4221 9577 4208 9568 4211 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 015DEG 42KT 4265 9622 4307 9785

FOBERT