River Flood Warning 50, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
613 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Ending morning thunderstorms, the chance for afternoon development
in our southeast, then a relatively tranquil weekend, are the
primary highlights of this forecast.

Large area of thunderstorms developed Thursday afternoon under mid
level diffluent zone southeast of upper low moving into the Dakotas.
Storms affected northeast Nebraska early in the day, then line of
severe storms fired along a line from northern Iowa into central
Nebraska. That eventually turned into a heavy rain event for much of
our area from near Columbus through west central Iowa. Meanwhile mid
level vort center spawned more storms in a north-south line in south
central Nebraska which progressed through southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa early Friday. What is left behind are areas of
showers with isolated thunderstorms. Extrapolation of showers
concurs with short-range model output in moving most of our area
on back side of rain by mid morning.

That should leave the bulk of the mid day hours dry. However cold
front tied to Northern Plains upper low is forecast to swing into
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa this afternoon, and lingering
mid level sheared vorticity over the same area will provide enough
of a kicker to get a few storms firing this afternoon. Several hi-
res short term models are suggesting this scenario currently, but
we'll have to wait and see what kind of airmass will be available
after morning convection churns things up. Still enough evidence to
maintain at least a slight chance for convection southeast of
Interstate 80 later this afternoon into the evening.

Beyond that, high pressure will settle into the region for Saturday,
bringing a relatively dry and mild day with mostly sunny skies and
light northwest winds.

Another mid level trough is forecast to enter the Plains Saturday
night then swing east of our area early Sunday. Induced warm/moist
advection over retreating surface high pressure could trigger an
isolated elevated thunderstorm after midnight Saturday night before
trough exits to the east. Thus will maintain our small chances then.
Otherwise southerly low level flow will return Sunday allowing
temperatures to bump back up into the lower 80s most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Mainly zonal mid level flow regime will be in place for the start of
the work week before trough begins to settle into the Pacific
Northwest, causing southwest flow across the Plains Wednesday and
Thursday. ECMWF and GFS are in general agreement with this pattern
evolution, but differ on more minor waves entering our area and thus
precipitation potential. Nonetheless, both suggest prolonged period
of moisture return ahead of any mid level perturbations, and thus at
least a chance for convection with each wave. The first chance will
come Wednesday and continue off-and-on through Thursday. Perhaps
the best chance will come Wednesday night when GFS shows a surface
front moving into Nebraska and Iowa. Otherwise will see
temperatures averaging the 80s for highs until we are behind that
front on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 604 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. IFR ceilings
are sneaking close to KOMA/KLNK this morning, but am leaning
toward the stratus staying out of the TAF sites. If they do impact
the sites, it should be short-lived. Otherwise, clearing skies are
expected, with ceilings transitioning to 10-15kft to 25kft to
clear. Winds will be light and variable early in the period,
perhaps leaning toward light west-northwesterly by tonight into
Saturday morning.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dergan
LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...Mayes

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
743 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

IAZ043-055-NEZ031>034-042>045-170245-
MONONA-HARRISON-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-
743 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RESIDUAL FLOODING OF STREAMS AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING DUE TO OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NEZ088>093-170245-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
743 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

IAZ056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030-050>053-065>068-
078-170245-
SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-
THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-
SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
743 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
514 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HOWELLS                 41.72N 97.00W
09/16/2016  M4.40 INCH       COLFAX             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL TOTAL YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

&&

BMAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
627 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW WEST POINT        41.85N 96.75W
09/16/2016  M5.02 INCH       CUMING             NE   MESONET

            NEBRASKA MESONET AT WEST POINT. RAINFALL TOTAL FOR
            CALENDAR DAY SEPT 15.

&&

BMAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
658 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 AM     HEAVY RAIN       TEKAMAH                 41.78N 96.22W
09/16/2016  M6.05 INCH       BURT               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR TOTAL

&&

BMAYES