Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
644 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPS/WINDS/POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
TODAY...TEMPS TUE AND THEN TEMPS/POPS/PCPN TYPE/TSTM CHANCES ON
WED. SO THERE ARE PLENTY OF ISSUES.

THE LARGE SCALE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN FEATURED A TROUGH TO OUR
EAST...A RIDGE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES UP INTO THE YUKON AND A TROUGH
MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB LAST
EVENING WERE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 100 METERS JUST OFF THE WA/OR
COAST. THERE WAS A DECENT 300 MB JET PUNCHING INTO NRN AND CNTRL
CA...WITH WINDS OF 100 KNOTS OR HIGHER. THERMAL AXIS AT 850 MB WAS
WELL TO OUR WEST...BUT WILL BE MOVING EWD TODAY. SURFACE ANLYS AT
08Z SHOWED SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM MN DOWN INTO MO. DEWPOINTS LOCALLY
WERE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...AND THIS DRY AIR STRETCHED
BACK DOWN INTO KS AND WRN OK. JUST HOW FAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TODAY IS IN QUESTION. GAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF WEIGHT
TO THE RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS INTO LATE AFTN.

TODAY...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...BRINGING MUCH WARMER
AIR INTO THE AREA. HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S...BUT SOME OF OUR WRN AND
SRN COUNTIES COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NEAR OR OVER 70. CURRENT
EXPECTED RH VALUES ARE MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING SO WILL
DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. THE RECENT RAIN
HAD HELPED A BIT SINCE WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME GREENUP IN SOME
SPOTS...BUT NOT MUCH.

PCPN CHANCES SEEM LOW TODAY/TONIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO
SEE IF ANYTHING MIGHT DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SWD ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUE. EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FCST
DETAILS THROUGH WED. BY 12Z WED...SFC LOW SHOULD EITHER BE OVER
NRN KS OR NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTH
WITH THIS FEATURE (COMPARED TO THE NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF) AND IS NOT
THE PREFERRED MODEL AT THIS TIME. GFS WAS ALSO FASTER AND FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE 500 MB LOW...AND APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. DIFLUENT FLOW AND GENERAL OVERALL FORCING
FOR ASCENT SHOULD HELP PCPN BREAK OUT IN OUR NRN AND POSSIBLY
CNTRL ZONES FOR TUE NGT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TUE NGT IS IN
OUR SRN COUNTIES WITH NEGATIVE MID LEVEL EPV...BUT GENERALLY NOT
COINCIDENT WITH BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF
-TSRA TUE NGT. USING THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART...TROWAL
STRUCTURE AND NEGATIVE 700-500 MB EPV WILL BE IN A GENERAL AXIS
FROM ERN IA INTO SCNTRL NE BY 18Z WED. USING 850 MB TEMPS AS A
GENERAL PROXY FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME VERY
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR FAR NW FCST AREA BY 18Z WED AND
PROBABLY REACHING DOWN CLOSE TO A LINE FROM SEWARD TO HARLAN BY
00Z THU. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...
GENERALLY SHIFTING TO JUST SERN NE AND SWRN IA BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS
WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY NW OF NORFOLK...UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
AND SHOULD RANGE TO AROUND 70 AT FALLS CITY. THIS IS ALL VERY
DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN BUT IS A BEST ESTIMATE AT
THIS POINT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH 1-3 INCHES IN NERN NE
DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH DRIER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO NERN NE. SNOW AMOUNTS 2-4 INCHES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
WED NGT NEAR THE SD AND KS BORDERS. WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR AS WELL
BUT AT THIS POINT TOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH BLOWING/DRIFTING
THERE WILL BE SINCE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY WET. BUT WINDS SPEEDS OF
15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY. AGAIN...GAVE THE 00Z
ECMWF A BIT MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS. LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER
INTO MID MORNING THU IN FAR SERN NE AND FAR SWRN IA.

THU NGT AND FRI SHOULD BE DRY...AS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE SOME POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT
VERY GOOD AND CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH. 00Z ECMWF WAS WET FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA SAT INTO SAT NGT...WHILE THE GFS KEPT HIGHEST
PCPN POTENTIAL IN SERN NE AND SWRN IA JUST ON SAT. STAYED CLOSE TO
AN OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LLVL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT AS SFC WINDS MIX
OUT...THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM AGAIN UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 25KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
505 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-220015-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
505 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA ON WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG...
MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

MEANWHILE...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. IT
IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHERE AMOUNTS FROM
TWO TO FIVE INCHES APPEAR POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL COULD BECOME DIFFICULT WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.