Small Craft Advisory 54, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1046 PM PDT SAT APR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. A DRY UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND TO OUR
NORTH LATE SUNDAY...BUT THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE. COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY EVENING AND THE FORT
ORD PROFILER SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN DEEPENING SINCE LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF THIS TROUGH WILL
BE MODEST COOLING ON SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD JUST OFFSHORE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH ACROSS OREGON.
THIS WILL TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE NORTHERLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A DRIER AIRMASS TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD MIX OUT MOST REMAINING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE HIGHER ON MONDAY...BUT THE MOST
ROBUST WARMING IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY...AND
INTO RECORD TERRITORY BY WEDNESDAY. DURING THESE EARLY SEASON WARM
EVENTS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...THE WARMTH IS OFTEN DISTRIBUTED QUITE
UNIFORMLY ACROSS OUR REGION. SO WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS NEAR THE
COAST TO BE AS WARM...OR NEARLY AS WARM...AS INLAND. BY WEDNESDAY
80S WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH SOME LOWER TO MID
90S LIKELY AS WELL. FOR MOST OF OUR REGION...NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WE'VE SEEN SINCE LAST OCTOBER.

COOLING WILL COMMENCE ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST LIFTS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA NORTHWARD
AND TOWARDS THE FAR SOUTHERN CA COAST. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO MERGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UNDERCUT THE WEST
COAST RIDGE...AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIP WITH THIS
COMPLEX PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT
AT LEAST PART OF OUR AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE
THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE UNDER THE RIDGE AND INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS BY LATE MONDAY...APRIL 11.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...STRATUS HAS BEEN COMING
IN LOW ALONG THE COAST AND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS HAS DELAYED
THE STRATUS FROM PUSHING INLAND. STILL EXPECTING IFR CIGS DURING
THE NIGHT CLEARING AT THE USUAL TIME OF 17-18Z. AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL HELP DEEPEN THE STRATUS LAYER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR AN
EARLIER PUSH SUNDAY NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR AFTER 07Z CLEARING 17-18Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z.

&&

.BEACHES...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE MODERATE
TO HIGH ENERGY MIXED SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
TODAY. THESE ENERGETIC WAVES WILL SUPPORT STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT
LOCAL BEACHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SHORE BREAK AT SOME
BEACHES SUCH AS TWIN LAKES BEACH IN SANTA CRUZ. THIS THREAT WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.
A MIXED LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI

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