Flash Flood Watch 9, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

059 
WGUS66 KMTR 262035
FFAMTR

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
135 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOBERANES AND CHIMNEY FIRE BURN SCAR
AREA...

.A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MONTEREY COUNTY ON THURSDAY.
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVY RAIN RATES ON TOP OF RECENT BURN SCARS
COULD RESULT IN DEBRIS FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING. THIS WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED TO GIVE RESIDENTS AS MUCH LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE TO
TAKE PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

CAZ517-270445-
/O.CON.KMTR.FF.A.0009.161027T2200Z-161028T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
135 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREA...SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST. 

* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1/2 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE 
  FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ITS 
  DURING THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT DEBRIS FLOWS OR FLASH 
  FLOODING ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. 

* DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BE A PARTICULAR THREAT IN AND BELOW THE 
  SOBERANES FIRE BURN AREA. 

* PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS WATCH NOW INCLUDES THE CHIMNEY FIRE BURN
  AREA IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

469 
WGUS66 KMTR 270406
FFAMTR

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
906 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOBERANES AND CHIMNEY FIRE BURN SCAR
AREA...

.A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MONTEREY COUNTY ON THURSDAY.
RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVY RAIN RATES ON TOP OF RECENT BURN SCARS
COULD RESULT IN DEBRIS FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING. THIS WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED TO GIVE RESIDENTS AS MUCH LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE TO
TAKE PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

CAZ517-271215-
/O.CON.KMTR.FF.A.0009.161027T2200Z-161028T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
906 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREA...SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST. 

* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1/2 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE 
  FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ITS 
  DURING THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT DEBRIS FLOWS OR FLASH 
  FLOODING ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. 

* DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BE A PARTICULAR THREAT IN AND BELOW THE 
  SOBERANES FIRE BURN AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

275 
WGUS66 KMTR 271103
FFAMTR

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
403 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SOBERANES AND CHIMNEY FIRE
BURN SCAR AREA...

.A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MONTEREY COUNTY TODAY. RAIN
WILL BECOME HEAVY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HEAVY RAIN RATES ON TOP OF RECENT BURN SCARS COULD RESULT
IN DEBRIS FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING. THIS WATCH IS BEING ISSUED TO
GIVE RESIDENTS AS MUCH LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONARY
ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

CAZ517-271915-
/O.CON.KMTR.FF.A.0009.161027T2200Z-161028T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
403 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREA...SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST. 

* FROM 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1/2 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ITS DURING
  THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT DEBRIS FLOWS OR FLASH FLOODING ARE
  MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

* DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BE A PARTICULAR THREAT IN AND BELOW THE 
  SOBERANES FIRE BURN AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

418 
WGUS66 KMTR 271801
FFAMTR

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1101 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SOBERANES AND CHIMNEY FIRE
BURN SCAR AREA...

.A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MONTEREY COUNTY TODAY.
CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER THE REGION... 
HOWEVER... RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVY RAIN RATES ON TOP OF RECENT BURN SCARS
COULD RESULT IN DEBRIS FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING. THIS WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED TO GIVE RESIDENTS AS MUCH LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE TO
TAKE PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

CAZ517-281400-
/O.CON.KMTR.FF.A.0009.161027T2200Z-161028T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
1101 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREA...SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST. 

* FROM 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1/2 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE 
  FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ITS 
  DURING THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT DEBRIS FLOWS OR FLASH 
  FLOODING ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. 

* DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BE A PARTICULAR THREAT IN AND BELOW THE 
  SOBERANES FIRE BURN AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

253 
WGUS66 KMTR 280936
FFAMTR

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
236 AM PDT FRI OCT 28 2016

CAZ517-281045-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-161028T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
236 AM PDT FRI OCT 28 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOBERANES AND CHIMNEY FIRE BURN
SCAR AREA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING, THE THREAT FOR DEBRIS FLOWS OR
FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED AS RAINFALL RATES REMAIN LOW.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1007 PM PDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A few isolated showers will remain possible over the
North Bay through late tonight with dry weather likely region-
wide on Wednesday. Our next weather system will bring widespread
rainfall,locally heavy at times, to just about all on Thursday as
an upper level low approaches the Central Coast. Showers will
linger on Friday with yet another storm system set to impact the
region from Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 8:55 PM PDT Tuesday...Rain appears to have
come to an end over the North Bay this evening with the Santa
Rosa ASOS and the Venado no longer reporting rain. That being
said isolated showers will remain possible through late tonight.
Spotter report from the North Bay earlier this evening confirm a
steady light rain across that region through most of the day
today. Even though Doppler radar didn't pick up on much over the
North Bay ground truth observations picked up 1" of rain over
Venado over the last 6 hours alone. Venado was our wettest spot
today with all other locations coming in significantly drier with
accumulations of a few hundredths to a few tenths during the same
time period. Rain chances will quickly diminish overnight with dry
conditions expected across the forecast area Wednesday.

The forecast remains on track to bring in a significantly wetter
system Thursday. This system is progged to bring widespread
precipitation to the region with period of heavy rain expected
especially over the San Cruz and Santa Lucia Mountains as the
system takes aim at the Central Coast. Latest model guidance
depicts precipitable water values in the 1.50" to 1.70" range.
Values vary by model however they do tend to agree that the
deepest moisture advection will be south of the Monterey Bay.
Rainfall totals are expected to range from 0.50" to 1.50" for
most locations with 2.00" to 3.00" expected over elevated coastal
terrain such as the Santa Lucia and Santa Cruz Mountains.
Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at this point but model
solutions differ with respect the the timing of when the upper
level low will pass overhead. Will add thunderstorms to the mix
if warranted with future model runs.

From previous discussion...As the aforementioned mid/upper level
low shifts inland, widespread rainfall will tapper off Thursday
night into Friday with only lingering showers/rain possible on
Friday. Precipitation amounts will likely be on the low side from
Friday night into Saturday ahead of yet another mid/upper level
system. As this storm system pushes inland to our north, a frontal
boundary will push southward across the region Saturday afternoon
into Sunday morning. With that said, confidence remains lower on
timing of the system and rainfall amounts. Then, lingering
precipitation will be possible through Sunday and potentially into
Monday.

An active, unsettled weather pattern looks likely to persist heading
into next week as well with temperatures near or below seasonal
averages. If you have any plans late in the forecast period, be
sure to stay tuned for the latest updates.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:07 PM PDT Tuesday...Areas of MVFR cigs.
Plenty of moisture lingers over the area, may see patchy fog
developing reducing visibilities to IFR-LIFR. A subtle increase in
wind Wednesday should provide sufficient mixing for MVFR/VFR over
most if not all of the area by afternoon.

Vicinity of KSFO...Moderate-high confidence VFR continues this
evening, tempo MVFR cig 06z-10z to prevailing MVFR cig through
Wednesday morning. Low clouds scatter out by late morning or early
afternoon Wednesday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Winds light SE with VFR persisting thus
far. There could be a few patches of fog around the area early
Wednesday morning. MVFR/VFR returns later Wednesday morning and
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...as of 8:12 PM PDT Tuesday...Gusty southerly winds will
persist over mainly the northern coastal waters tonight...then
decrease on Wednesday. Another low pressure system is expected to
impact the coastal waters Thursday and into the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar until 3 AM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: Canepa
MARINE: Sims/Canepa

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
519 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016

CAZ006-505>511-513-516-518-528>530-260430-
SAN FRANCISCO-
COASTAL NORTH BAY INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND THE DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CLARA VALLEY INCLUDING SAN JOSE-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY/ARROYO SECO AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY
INCLUDING PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY/HOLLISTER VALLEY AND CARMEL VALLEY-
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-
519 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH BAY
BEFORE BECOMING ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO
ALL AREAS BY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NEXT STORM ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN, THAT MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE TURNING TO
SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM COULD BRING MORE
RAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY TIMED TO BRING RAIN
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CAZ512-517-260430-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
519 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL END
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DRY WEDNESDAY THEN RAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY FOR
A TIME LATER THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE TURNING TO SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING. 1-4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HILLS. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE LOMA AND SOBERANES FIRE BURN SCARS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED AS THE EVENT NEARS IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR HEAVIER RAIN. MAINLY DRY LATER FRIDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.

ANOTHER STORM COULD BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

PERSONS WITH PROPERTY IN OR NEAR THE LOMA AND SOBERANES FIRE BURN
SCARS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND OR DEBRIS FLOWS.