Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
254 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...Increasing cumulus clouds this afternoon and some
thunderstorms starting to develop across Lemhi county and central
western Montana this afternoon. Expect thunderstorms to develop
over the Sapphire mountains and move northeast tonight affecting
Philipsburg to Ovando and locations further east. Good shear and
moderate instability will help the storms organize and be long
lived as they move across the area, however, it is not unstable
enough to expect anything but a slight chance of a storm producing
large hail or severe winds. Most storms will have wind gusts
around 35 to 40 mph and frequent lightning, and most storms will
be out of the area by 9pm MDT.

Tomorrow the upper level low currently over central Washington
will move over northwest Montana causing showers and thunderstorms
over much of northwestern and central western Montana.
Temperatures will be much cooler with 80s in central Idaho with
70s in most of the valleys of Montana.

The low pressure system will begin to slowly exit the region on
Wednesday, but rain will likely linger over northwest Montana
through most of the day particularly the Glacier park region. Snow
levels could drop down to 8000-9000 feet, thus people in the
backcountry should expect raw conditions on Wednesday.

For Thursday and Friday, lingering instability combined with
afternoon heating could lead to the development of afternoon
thunderstorms mainly along the Continental Divide and northwest
Montana. Any storms that develop will be slow moving and should
mainly be anchored over the higher terrain.

A brief ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the region
on Saturday and will lead to a warm and sunny Saturday with highs
approaching 90 degrees for most valleys. Models are hinting at
another disturbance moving in Sunday into Monday, which could
bring the return of thunderstorms to our area.

&&

.AVIATION...Southwest flow and increasing clouds this afternoon
and evening at most area terminals. KBTM will be the exception
with some thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening and
moving through with wind gusts 25-35 knots from the southwest
expected. KSMN may also be briefly affected by storms this
afternoon, though they are expected to develop and move to the
northeast quickly. Expect these storms to diminish quickly after
sunset.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
900 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             2 NW BELL CROSSING      46.47N 114.15W
08/08/2016  E1.00 INCH       RAVALLI            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF HALF INCH TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL WITH
            A FEW UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

&&

LV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
905 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2016

MTZ004>006-043-090330-
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION MT-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS MT-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS MT-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION MT-
905 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOULA COUNTY
UNTIL 930 PM MDT...

AT 903 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LOLO...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MISSOULA...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. WIND COULD GUST IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MISSOULA...LOLO...EAST MISSOULA...BONNER-WEST RIVERSIDE AND WYE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4667 11395 4669 11421 4706 11419 4702 11382
TIME...MOT...LOC 0303Z 188DEG 25KT 4676 11407

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
956 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2016

MTZ005-006-090430-
MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS MT-BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS MT-
956 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL RAVALLI COUNTY
UNTIL 1030 PM MDT...

AT 955 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
STEVENSVILLE...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAMILTON...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STEVENSVILLE...FLORENCE...VICTOR AND BELL CROSSING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4639 11392 4640 11417 4666 11411 4666 11384
TIME...MOT...LOC 0355Z 192DEG 20KT 4646 11402

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1016 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2016

MTZ005-006-043-090445-
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION MT-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS MT-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS MT-
1016 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL RAVALLI...
NORTHWESTERN GRANITE AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOULA COUNTIES UNTIL 1045
PM MDT...

AT 1015 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR FLORENCE...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF MISSOULA...MOVING NORTH AT 35
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MISSOULA...LOLO...FLORENCE...EAST MISSOULA...BONNER-WEST RIVERSIDE...
TURAH...TWIN CREEKS AND CLINTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4651 11390 4656 11415 4700 11404 4692 11366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 196DEG 32KT 4661 11400

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1052 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2016

MTZ005-006-090515-
MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS MT-BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS MT-
1052 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL RAVALLI AND WEST
CENTRAL GRANITE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM MDT...

AT 1051 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR WOODSIDE...OR 7 MILES EAST OF HAMILTON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMILTON...STEVENSVILLE AND CORVALLIS.

LAT...LON 4618 11392 4624 11417 4663 11405 4655 11368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0451Z 198DEG 28KT 4628 11401

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1139 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2016

MTZ005-006-043-090615-
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION MT-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS MT-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS MT-
1139 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL RAVALLI...WESTERN
GRANITE AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOULA COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM MDT...

AT 1138 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTH OF BONNER-WEST RIVERSIDE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MISSOULA...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BONNER-WEST RIVERSIDE...CLINTON...TURAH AND TWIN CREEKS.

LAT...LON 4662 11376 4667 11402 4711 11382 4705 11352
TIME...MOT...LOC 0538Z 193DEG 37KT 4674 11387