Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
355 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A low pressure system is moving toward the Northern Rockies this
morning, and a few isolated showers/thunderstorms have already
developed ahead of it in northwest Montana. These isolated showers
will continue to be ongoing through the morning hours. Current
satellite indicates a second wave of moisture will make its way
eastward by mid-day, this combined with any daytime surface
heating and enhanced shear from the low, will favor more
widespread development of showers and thunderstorms for northwest
Montana this afternoon and evening. Latest hi-resolution models
also show some isolated convection could form as far south as
Idaho County. Storms that do become stronger/more organized will
produce brief heavy rain, gusty winds, lightning, and the
potential for small hail...all which could impact ongoing outdoor
activities at fairs, lakes, and parks.

Winds will become fairly breezy across the area ahead and along
the approaching cold front today, especially for southwest
Montana and Lemhi County, Idaho where fire weather concerns are anticipated
this afternoon and evening. Windy weather across the area could
also result in choppy conditions on area lakes (Flathead Lake)
later today. Lastly, max temperatures will reach around normal for
this time of year as the cooler air mass replaces the warm ridge
that was in place yesterday.

As the low exits the area, a few lingering showers are possible
for far northwest Montana Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, a return
to a warmer and drier pattern is forecast for the weekend into
early next week. Long-range models are indicating that a few
disturbances could bring additional showers/thunderstorms and
breezy afternoon winds to western Montana for mid to late week,
but confidence is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will track through
northwest Montana through the morning ahead of an approaching cold
front. Expect increasing clouds for KGPI, and an increase in
showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of KGPI throughout the
afternoon and evening hours. Stronger storms that develop in
northwest Montana could bring threats of heavy rain, restrictions
in terrain visibility, gusty winds, lightning, and small hail. In
addition, all TAF sites will have an increase in westerly winds
today as the cold front moves through, with wind gusts reaching
20-30 kts after 22/1800Z. Latest model soundings support wind
gusts in excess of 30 kts at times for the KBTM air field throughout
the afternoon.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT
     tonight Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead.

ID...&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
120 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

MTZ001-222000-
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION MT-
120 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM MDT...

AT 120 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES NORTH OF LIBBY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EUREKA AND REXFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4888 11503 4848 11550 4858 11573 4900 11539
      4900 11530
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 212DEG 27KT 4860 11556