Alert archive / Montana / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

July 18, 2016Flathead County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this special weather statement at Jul 18, 2016, 7:31 PM MDT for Flathead County, Montana. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 18, 2016, 7:31 PM MDT (01:31 UTC)
Expired: Jul 18, 2016, 8:15 PM MDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Missoula, MT

County Flathead County, MT

The radar

The Missoula radar (KMSX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 233 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1686 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -123 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2027 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 66 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 138 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 18, 2:26 PM MDT, 5 hours 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 2:26 PM MDT, 5 hours 5 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
226 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST MONTANA...

.DISCUSSION...An upper level wave embedded in southwest flow will
provide the lift needed for thunderstorm development this
afternoon continuing through late this evening. The best
conjunction of instability and wind shear will present itself
across northwest Montana, western Clearwater County and along the
Continental Divide. Storms that fire up in these areas could
become severe with large hail, gusty winds, frequent lightning and
heavy rain being the main threats.

Another possible threat will be debris flow at the typical points
on Going-To-The-Sun Road in Glacier National Park. The stronger storms
could produce up to an inch of rain in less than 30 minutes which
could trigger a debris flow.

Not everyone will see thunderstorm activity, but we suggest that
you stay tuned to your NOAA weather radio, local media, our
Facebook and Twitter accounts at @NWSMissoula for further
information through tonight.

There is a slight chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm
across southwest Montana and Lemhi County. Weather models are
showing drier air pushing into those areas by late this afternoon
which could shut off any shower activity and even limit the
severity of the storms towards Butte and Continental Divide.

On Tuesday there could be more showers and thunderstorms that
develop in the afternoon, but may not be as strong as today. The
best chance would be over north-central Idaho into northwest
Montana.

Tuesday and Wednesday the chance of showers and thunderstorms
decreases, though a slight chance remains for northwest Montana.
By Thursday a shortwave ridge over the region will keep showers to
a minimum, and mainly only over the higher terrain. Friday will be
the coolest day of the week as the upper level low off the west
coast exits the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Some strong storms Monday afternoon and evening will
pose a threat to navigation across the Northern Rockies. Among
area terminals, KGPI has the best chance of thunderstorms
developing nearby from 18/2100Z through 19/0200Z. Wind gusts to 45
knots, large hail, limited visibility/ceiling in heavy rain, and
frequent lightning will be the main threats. Showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms will be present during this same period,
albeit briefly, for KMSO and KBTM. Most terrain obscurations will
be due to thunderstorms that are to develop quickly. Much of the
shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated to dissipate after
19/0600Z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 18, 5:38 PM MDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
538 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

MTZ001-002-190015-
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION MT-WEST GLACIER REGION MT-
538 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FLATHEAD AND
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

AT 537 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A SERIES OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS 24 MILES NORTH OF WHITEFISH...OR 37 MILES NORTH OF
EVERGREEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRAILCREEK AND POLEBRIDGE.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4900 11407 4896 11405 4896 11403 4894 11404
      4892 11401 4891 11401 4889 11406 4885 11399
      4883 11400 4882 11395 4885 11391 4884 11388
      4886 11384 4884 11382 4884 11383 4859 11427
      4887 11486 4900 11480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 211DEG 37KT 4876 11442

Local storm report, Jul 18, 6:09 PM MDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 18, 6:47 PM MDT, 44 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 18, 7:10 PM MDT, 21 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 18, 7:15 PM MDT, 16 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 18, 7:31 PM MDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 18, 6:47 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Lake	28 min
Jul 18, 7:10 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Lake	35 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Montana, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.